Key takeaways:

Bitcoin is stuck below $110,000 due to macroeconomic uncertainty and as Nvidia earnings anticipation caps risk appetite.

Strong spot BTC ETF inflows and Bitcoin options data are hints that US economic clarity could unlock BTC highs.

Investor sentiment improved on May 26 after US President Donald Trump postponed his retaliatory European Union 50% tariffs on imports. European stock markets responded positively to the development, but Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to hold the $110,000 level, leading traders to question whether a new all-time high remains within reach.

Even if Bitcoin revisits the $105,000 mark, rising institutional interest and robust derivatives markets indicate that bullish traders are neither overleveraged nor concerned about a potential correction.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized basis rate. Source: laevitas.ch

Demand for leveraged long Bitcoin positions grew, as evidenced by the BTC futures premium increasing to 8% on May 26. Although this was a modest rise from 6.5% the previous day, the metric still sits comfortably within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. For context, in December 2024 the Bitcoin futures premium surged to 20% when BTC surpassed $100,000 for the first time.

Will Nvidia earnings and US economic data ignite Bitcoin price? 

Trump’s decision to delay the EU import duties until July 9 reduced some market uncertainty, yet the broader economic consequences of the ongoing tariff conflict have yet to show up in corporate earnings. Investor risk appetite now hinges in part on Nvidia’s (NVDA)  May 28 earnings report, and anticipation for this possibly explains Bitcoin’s inability to break through its previous highs.

Bitcoin options markets are signaling an increased probability of upward movement. This suggests that whales and market makers remain confident, even with BTC trading just 2.6% below its record high of $111,957.

Bitcoin options 30-day delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The negative 6% Bitcoin options delta skew indicates that put (sell) options are trading at a discount, a typical characteristic of bullish markets. Readings closer to zero reflect a more balanced demand between put and call (buy) options — a trend observed on May 25.

It’s likely that the persistent institutional demand for Bitcoin is gradually shifting the risk perception among the world’s largest investment firms. Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, acquired $427 million worth of Bitcoin between May 19 and May 25 at an average price of $106,237. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw another $2.75 billion in inflows during the same period.

During JPMorgan’s Annual Investor Day on May 19, CEO Jamie Dimon announced that the bank would finally allow clients to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs. While the move does not include custody or official recommendations of cryptocurrencies, it opens the door to indirect Bitcoin exposure for the bank’s $6 trillion in customer deposits.

Related: Bitcoin’s new highs may have been driven by Japan bond market crisis

US markets are closed on May 26 in observance of the Memorial Day holiday. As a result, any optimism stemming from the delayed US–EU tariffs may be tempered by ongoing concerns surrounding US government debt and the threat of a potential economic recession. The recent 5.1% drop in MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending May 23 prompted traders to adopt a more cautious stance.

While Bitcoin derivatives metrics remain healthy, upcoming economic data will be critical for market sentiment. Investors are closely watching the Richmond Fed manufacturing index due on May 28, followed by the PCE inflation data on May 30. These indicators will likely influence risk appetite and the chances of Bitcoin breaking above the $112,000 mark in the short term.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Cryptocurrency industry groups are urging the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to issue formal guidance on staking, citing continued regulatory uncertainty for Web3 infrastructure providers, according to Allison Muehr, head of staking policy for the Crypto Council for Innovation, a trade group.

Clarifying the SEC’s position on staking has become a top priority for the crypto industry, Muehr said during Solana’s Accelerate conference in New York.

“We’re about 25% of the way there,” Muehr said. “The SEC has done more constructive engagement with us in the past four months than in the last four years, but we still don’t have formal staking guidance.”

Allison Muehr, right, the Crypto Council for Innovation’s head of staking policy, speaks at Accelerate. Source: Cointelegraph

Related: SEC acknowledges slew of crypto ETF filings as reviews, approvals accelerate

Changing regulatory stance

Under the previous US presidential administration, the SEC brought enforcement actions against several crypto firms for offering staking services it alleged were unregistered securities offerings.

Since President Donald Trump took office in January, the SEC has softened its stance.

In February, the agency issued guidance stating that memecoins do not qualify as investment contracts under US law. 

In April, the regulator clarified that stablecoins also do not qualify as securities if they are marketed solely as a means of making payments.

Still, the agency has yet to approve staking in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or issue formal guidance on how staking services can be offered compliantly in the US.

Other policy goals

Muehr said she is optimistic the SEC will eventually approve staking for cryptocurrency ETFs, including for proposed Solana (SOL) funds.

“Getting there means first getting the SEC comfortable with the structure,” she said, noting the industry has recently had “some productive meetings with the agency.”

“I’m hopeful we’ll see a Solana ETF and even a staked Solana ETF in the US sometime soon.”

The SEC is not the only agency the crypto industry is looking to persuade. Muehr said the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) — the top US tax authority — has also taken a position the industry opposes.

“The IRS finally issued a statement saying staking rewards are service income,” she said. “We disagree with that interpretation and continue to engage.”

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Key points:

Bitcoin ETPs continue to witness solid buying, signaling that the bulls expect the uptrend to continue.

Several major altcoins witnessed a pullback, but lower levels continue to attract buyers.

Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to sustain above $109,588, indicating buying on every minor dip. Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, and if buyers can extend the streak to eight weeks, it clears the path for further upside. Crypto analyst and trader Carpe Noctom said in a post on X that Bitcoin has only seen three instances of eight consecutive weekly positive closes, and every time, Bitcoin has been higher in the following six- and 12-month time period.

Institutional investors sense a long-term opportunity and, hence, have continued to pump money into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs). CoinShares reported on May 26 that Bitcoin ETPs witnessed $2.9 billion in inflows last week, which is a quarter of the total inflows for 2024.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Although most analysts remain bullish over the long term, some are warning of a possible short-term pullback in Bitcoin. CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk wrote in a QuickTake blog post that the data shows buyer exhaustion and increasing volatility, which could start a short-term correction toward $105,000. 

Could buyers catapult Bitcoin to a new all-time high, pulling altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from 5,968 and reached the 20-day exponential moving average (5,759).

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the index could gradually climb toward the overhead resistance of 6,000. Sellers are expected to pose a strong challenge in the 6,000 to 6,147 zone.

The short-term advantage will favor the bears on a break and close below the 20-day EMA. The index could then plummet to the 50-day simple moving average (5,584), which is likely to attract buyers. 

US Dollar Index price prediction

The bulls tried to push the US Dollar Index (DXY) above the 20-day EMA (100.15) on May 22, but the bears held their ground.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers are trying to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the 99 support. If they manage to do that, the index could continue its slide to the solid support at 97.92. Buyers are expected to defend the 97.92 level with all their might because a break below it may sink the index to 95.67.

Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA (101.26) to indicate that the corrective phase may be over.

Bitcoin price prediction

Bitcoin bulls are trying to push and sustain the price above $109,588, indicating that every minor dip is being purchased.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping moving averages and the RSI near the overbought territory signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers shove the price above $111,980, the BTC/USDT pair could skyrocket to $130,000.

The 20-day EMA ($104,886) is the vital support to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below the 20-day EMA could tempt short-term buyers to book profits. That could sink the pair to the psychologically crucial $100,000 level, where buyers are expected to mount a strong defense.

Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) turned up from the 20-day EMA ($2,425) on May 25, indicating solid demand at lower levels. 

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will try to drive the price above the $2,738 obstacle again. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could soar to $3,000. The bears will try to halt the up move at $2,850, but the bulls are likely to prevail.

If the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair could dip to $2,323 and then to $2,111.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) has been oscillating between $2.65 and $2, signaling equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA ($2.34) and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price turns up and breaks above $2.48, the bulls will have another go at the $2.65 resistance. If they clear the overhead hurdle, the XRP/USDT pair could soar to $3.

On the other hand, a break and close below the 50-day SMA could sink the pair to the solid support at $2. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $2 level because a break below it may sink the pair to $1.61.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) has started to move toward the overhead resistance of $693 after taking support at the 20-day EMA ($652).

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate an advantage to buyers. If bulls kick the price above $693, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the $732 to $761 overhead zone.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bears are trying to seize control. The pair could slump to $633 and subsequently to the 50-day SMA ($617).

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) took support at the 20-day EMA ($169) on May 25, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on minor dips.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will again attempt to drive the price above the $188 overhead resistance. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair could surge to $210 and eventually to $220. 

Sellers will have to pull the price below the 20-day EMA to prevent the upside. The pair could then plunge to the 50-day SMA ($151), which is likely to act as solid support. A bounce off the 50-day SMA could signal a few days of range-bound action between $153 and $188.

Related: Solana following Bitcoin? Network activity, chart pattern point to $300 SOL price

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading between $0.26 and $0.21, signaling buying near the support and selling close to the resistance.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price has bounced off the 20-day EMA, opening the gates for a rally to the overhead resistance of $0.26. Buyers will have to pierce the $0.26 level to start the next leg of the uptrend to $0.30 and then to $0.35.

Alternatively, a break and close below the $0.21 support suggests the bears are back in the game. The DOGE/USDT pair could then swing inside a large range between $0.26 and $0.14 for some time.

Cardano price prediction

Buyers are trying to keep Cardano (ADA) above the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern but have failed to start a strong rebound.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.75) is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to propel the price above $0.86 to tilt the advantage in their favor. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $1.01. 

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the neckline, it suggests that the bulls have given up. The pair could then drop to the $0.60 support, which is likely to attract buyers.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been in a strong uptrend for the past several days. Buyers asserted their supremacy by pushing the price above the $35.73 resistance on May 25.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will try to maintain the momentum and push the price to $42.25, where the bears are expected to step in. If buyers do not give up much ground from $42.25, the uptrend could extend to $50.

The immediate support on the downside is $35.73. If the HYPE/USDT pair rebounds off $35.73, it increases the likelihood of a rally above $42.25. Sellers will gain the upper hand on a break below $32.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Update (9:27 pm UTC): This article has been updated to include a statement from Truth Media and Technology Group.

Trump Media and Technology Group, the company behind US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform, is planning to raise $3 billion in a mix of equity and convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the Financial Times reported. The move would position the company to follow the footsteps of crypto treasury companies like Strategy.

In a statement to the FT, the company denied any plans for a Bitcoin treasury. “Apparently the Financial Times has dumb writers listening to even dumber sources,” it reportedly said. Cointelegraph has reached out for further comment, but has not received a response at the time of publication.

Trump Media will issue $2 billion in equity and $1 billion in convertible bonds, a type of asset that can be converted into equity at a later date. The size of the raise may change, the FT cited sources familiar with the matter as saying.

The equity is expected to be sold at market price as of the close on May 23. On that day, the share price closed at $25.72, marking a 4.6% increase on the day. Trump Media’s market capitalization was $5.7 billion as of May 23.

Trump Media and Technology Group share price on May 23. Source: Google Finance

The company is following a similar approach to that pioneered by companies such as Strategy, Metaplanet, Semler Scientific and others, allocating part of their funds to Bitcoin (BTC). Betting on crypto provides a hedge against inflation and keeps them from becoming “zombie companies,” some of the companies have said.

Related: Strategy bags 4,020 Bitcoin as price briefly breaks $110K

Trump Media’s move may increase scrutiny

The move may also result in more scrutiny toward the Trump family’s growing crypto businesses. Democratic lawmakers have pushed back against bipartisan bills over the Trump family’s crypto dealings, with some staging protests against the memecoin dinner Trump hosted on May 22.

Trump’s crypto ties include non-fungible token collections, the Official Trump (TRUMP) and Melania (MELANIA) memecoins, decentralized finance platform World Liberty Financial and a dollar-pegged stablecoin. Critics say that Trump’s crypto ventures pose a conflict of interest, especially as he could hold influence over an industry he stands to profit from.

According to the report, Trump transferred his 53% share in Trump Media and Technology to a revocable trust managed by Donald Trump Jr.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Update (May 26, 9:27 pm UTC): This article has been updated to include a statement from Truth Media and Technology Group.

Trump Media and Technology Group, the company behind US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform, is planning to raise $3 billion in a mix of equity and convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the Financial Times reported. The move would position the company to follow the footsteps of crypto treasury companies like Strategy.

In a statement to the FT, the company denied any plans for a Bitcoin treasury. “Apparently the Financial Times has dumb writers listening to even dumber sources,” it reportedly said. Cointelegraph has reached out for further comment, but has not received a response at the time of publication.

Trump Media will issue $2 billion in equity and $1 billion in convertible bonds, a type of asset that can be converted into equity at a later date. The size of the raise may change, the FT cited sources familiar with the matter as saying.

The equity is expected to be sold at market price as of the close on May 23. On that day, the share price closed at $25.72, marking a 4.6% increase on the day. Trump Media’s market capitalization was $5.7 billion as of May 23.

Trump Media and Technology Group share price on May 23. Source: Google Finance

The company is following a similar approach to that pioneered by companies such as Strategy, Metaplanet, Semler Scientific and others, allocating part of their funds to Bitcoin (BTC). Betting on crypto provides a hedge against inflation and keeps them from becoming “zombie companies,” some of the companies have said.

Related: Strategy bags 4,020 Bitcoin as price briefly breaks $110K

Trump Media’s move may increase scrutiny

The move may also result in more scrutiny toward the Trump family’s growing crypto businesses. Democratic lawmakers have pushed back against bipartisan bills over the Trump family’s crypto dealings, with some staging protests against the memecoin dinner Trump hosted on May 22.

Trump’s crypto ties include non-fungible token collections, the Official Trump (TRUMP) and Melania (MELANIA) memecoins, decentralized finance platform World Liberty Financial and a dollar-pegged stablecoin. Critics say that Trump’s crypto ventures pose a conflict of interest, especially as he could hold influence over an industry he stands to profit from.

According to the report, Trump transferred his 53% share in Trump Media and Technology to a revocable trust managed by Donald Trump Jr.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions