Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a 45-day high above $91,000 on April 22, and the upward movement coincided with gold reaching a new all-time high. The price gains reflect investors’ concerns over a potential economic recession amid ongoing global trade tensions.

The tides are shifting, but does data support a Bitcoin price rally above $95,000?

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

In neutral markets, the Bitcoin futures premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. At present, the annualized premium stands at 6%, which is not considered particularly bullish, even though BTC appreciated by $6,840 between April 20 and April 22. Some analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from the stock market.

Traders’ PTSD could emerge around BTC’s $90K zone

Part of this skepticism among traders stems from Bitcoin’s repeated inability to sustain levels above $90,000 in early March. For example, Bitcoin tested the $95,000 mark on March 3, only to fall to $81,464 the following day. This inconsistent performance since the $109,346 peak on Jan. 20 has contributed to a lack of conviction among bullish investors, especially as gold has continued to set new all-time highs during the same period.

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Currently, Bitcoin is trading 16% below its all-time high, a figure that closely mirrors the S&P 500’s decline of 14.5%. This suggests that the recent era of excessive risk-taking may be behind us. Notably, even at its lowest point below $75,000, Bitcoin’s 32% drawdown was less severe than those experienced by Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on April 22 contributed to easing investor concerns. As reported by Bloomberg, Bessent described the ongoing tariff standoff with China as “unsustainable,” suggesting an increased likelihood of de-escalation. In contrast, US President Donald Trump took to social media to assert that US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is hindering economic growth by not reducing interest rates.

Bitcoin’s gains contrast with investors’ shift to government bonds

Regardless of where the blame lies for the subdued economic growth in the United States, demand for short-term US Treasurys has risen, as evidenced by the yield on the 2-year note declining to 3.81% from 4.04% a month earlier. Essentially, investors are accepting lower returns in exchange for the perceived safety of government bonds. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s 6.3% price increase over the past 30 days stands out as particularly notable.

To determine whether these recent gains have affected professional traders’ sentiment, it is important to examine the BTC options markets. If traders expect a correction, put (sell) options tend to trade at a premium, causing the 25% delta skew metric to rise above 6%. Conversely, bullish sentiment pushes the indicator below -6%.

Bitcoin 30-day options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

Currently, the Bitcoin options market reflects limited enthusiasm following the recent surge to $91,000, with the 25% delta skew indicator at -2%, which remains within the neutral range. According to this metric, the last period of bullish sentiment occurred on Jan. 30, when Bitcoin traded near $105,000. Therefore, there is no clear evidence that large investors or market makers are anticipating a sustained rally above $95,000.

Related: Institutional demand could push BTC past $200k in 2025 — Analysts

Despite some weak macroeconomic data, market participants expect a relatively strong first-quarter earnings season. FactSet reports that the “Magnificent 7” companies are projected to achieve earnings growth of 14.8% for the first quarter compared to the prior year.

While Bitcoin still has a reasonable chance of revisiting $95,000 or higher, many traders appear to be waiting for further developments in the US-China trade war before placing additional bullish bets.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

US Securities and Exchange Commission member Hester Peirce, currently leading the agency’s crypto task force, offered a preview of what the industry could expect now that Paul Atkins has been sworn in as the regulatory body’s chairman.

Speaking to Cointelegraph before the US Senate confirmed Atkins’ nomination and he took his position as SEC chair, Peirce said she welcomed the opportunity to work again with the incoming agency leader. Peirce worked as Atkins’ counsel from 2004 to 2008 during the then-commissioner’s first term at the SEC.

“He cares about economic growth and how the markets that we regulate can support economic growth,” Peirce told Cointelegraph. “I would love the chance to work with [Atkins] on trying to reorient the agency so that it does take into consideration all aspects of our mission.”

Related: Atkins becomes next SEC chair: What’s next for the crypto industry

Atkins, appointed by US President Donald Trump in what many saw as a nod to the crypto industry to replace former chair Gary Gensler, was sworn in on April 21. During his confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee, lawmakers questioned Atkins on his ties to the crypto industry, potentially presenting conflicts of interest in his role helping regulate digital assets. 

“I expect that he will continue to follow the ethics rules,” said Peirce on Atkins. “I worked for [him] and I have very high regard for his integrity.” 

SEC’s priorities under new leadership 

Atkins, now chair, comes to the SEC as the fourth commissioner, with five members typically filling the agency’s leadership positions. Gensler and former Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga stepped down in January. Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw is expected to be the next to depart before 2026, leaving a panel of only three Republican commissioners unless Trump nominates a Democrat.

Commissioner Mark Uyeda, whom Trump named as acting chair on Jan. 20, was still scheduled to oversee some of the SEC’s proceedings, including an April 25 roundtable event discussing crypto custody. Uyeda said on April 21 that he was planning to return to his “regular role” as a commissioner, suggesting that Atkins may soon assume all his responsibilities as chair. 

The shakeup in leadership comes amid many in the industry looking for clarity from the SEC, the courts, and lawmakers after Gensler’s departure. Under the former chair, many accused the SEC of enacting a “regulation by enforcement” approach to crypto, resulting in several high-profile lawsuits against firms including Coinbase, Ripple Labs, and Binance. Since January, the commission has dropped many of the cases.

“I think we’re all trying to get to a good place, which is putting some clarity around crypto, some regulatory clarity,” said Peirce.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged over the Easter weekend, jumping 9% and crossing the $91,000 threshold on April 22. This strong performance diverged sharply from the stock market’s lukewarm rebound and mirrored gold’s bullish behavior, which briefly touched a new all-time high of $3,500. 

While the BTC rally and its growing decoupling from equities are noteworthy, it’s the derivatives market that offers an even more bullish signal.

According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin open interest (OI) soared by 17%, reaching a 2-month high at $68.3. OI measures the total capital invested in BTC derivatives, and such an uptick shows a growing bullish sentiment among traders. 

The market is currently in contango — a situation where futures prices (notably CME Bitcoin futures) are higher than the spot price. This typically occurs because investors anticipate rising prices and take advantage of leverage tools offered by exchanges, allowing them to gain greater exposure through futures than they could with direct spot purchases.

This raises two questions: Who is buying, and why?

Institutional interest reawakens

A key metric for understanding investor composition is the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. It measures the percentage price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro (BTC/USD) and Binance (BTC/USDT). Since Coinbase Pro caters predominantly to US-based institutional investors, while Binance has a broader global retail audience, this premium can indicate where the buying pressure is coming from.

While the first half of April showed strong retail dominance, April 21–22 saw institutional demand kick in, with the Coinbase premium rising to 0.16%, per CoinGlass.

Coinbase Bitcoin premium index. Source: CoinGlass

Michael Saylor’s Strategy could be among those buyers. On April 21, Saylor announced the acquisition of 6,556 more BTC for approximately $555.8 million at an average price of ~$84,785 per coin. This brings MicroStrategy’s total holdings to an eye-watering 538,200 BTC, worth approximately $48.4 billion at current prices. 

On a smaller scale, Japan-based Metaplanet also added 330 BTC to its treasury, pushing its total to 4,855 BTC, the company’s CEO announced on the same day.

Meanwhile, investors who favor traditional financial instruments over direct Bitcoin holding have also begun to renew their interest. According to the CoinGlass data, on April 21, BTC ETFs recorded $381 million in inflows — a much-needed reversal after a prolonged period of heavy outflows. Since February, ETFs had suffered 33 days of net outflows versus just 21 days of inflows, with outflows strongly dominating in volume. The recent reversal suggests renewed confidence, particularly from TradFi-aligned investors.

Related: Bitcoin risks 10%-15% BTC price dip after key rejection near $89K

The dollar fades as Bitcoin rises 

Since tariff fears took grip of the market, institutional investors have kept Bitcoin and equities at arm’s length, but something shifted over the Easter weekend.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin has decisively broken out of its multimonth downtrend

“The multimonth downtrend is over. And when a technical downtrend is broken, technical uptrends emerge.”BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital

Another, more macroeconomic, factor may be the increasing tension between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Their growing rift, centered on concerns about inflationary pressure from tariffs and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates, has cast a shadow over the US dollar.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar’s value against a basket of currencies, has been in freefall since February, reaching lows last seen in 2022. Trump’s public pressure on Powell, and speculation that he might attempt to remove him or other Fed officials, is fueling anxiety over the Fed’s independence — a foundational pillar of the US financial system. 

The potential consequences of a falling dollar for the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is clear: Bitcoin stands poised to be a major beneficiary. A decentralized, censorship-resistant money governed solely by code, with a fixed supply schedule and no central authority to manipulate its issuance. As confidence in traditional monetary systems continues to erode, Bitcoin’s narrative grows ever stronger.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

DeFi Development Corporation, formerly known as Janover, is ramping up its Solana treasury strategy following a buyout led by Kraken executives.

According to an April 22 announcement, the company added 88,164 Solana (SOL) to its treasury, worth $11.5 million and bringing its Solana stake to $34.4 million.

On April 7, DeFi Development Corporation was acquired by a group of former Kraken executives. As part of the deal, the company announced a shift toward crypto, including a rebrand and a Solana-based reserve treasury. Before the transition, Janover operated in the real estate financing space, linking lenders with commercial property buyers.

Since the takeover, the company has made multiple purchases of SOL, including a buy of $10.5 million on April 16. With the latest purchase, DeFi Development Corporation’s total holdings stand at 251,842. The company plans to stake the tokens to generate additional yield.

As of this writing, shares of DeFi Development Corporation (JNVR) are up 12.83% on the news, according to Google Finance.

DeFi Development Corporation’s intraday performance. Source: Google Finance

Staking is the process of locking up cryptocurrency to help secure a blockchain network and earn rewards in return. Solana briefly surpassed Ethereum in total staked value on April 21, with over $53.9 billion worth of SOL staked by more than 500,000 unique wallet holders, yielding an 8.31% annualized return.

Crypto treasury strategies gaining traction

Since Michael Saylor’s Strategy began adding Bitcoin (BTC) to its balance sheet in August 2020, more companies have followed suit with crypto treasuries, often seeing a boost in their stock prices as a result.

Japanese company Metaplanet announced its Bitcoin treasury in 2024 and recorded a 4800% rise in its share price as of Feb. 10, though it has fallen since then. Semler Scientific, a healthcare technology company, saw a 30% stock price rise after it announced its BTC reserve treasury.

Other companies are expanding their digital assets approach to other cryptocurrencies, such as SOL. Upexi, a Nasdaq-listed supply chain firm, recently announced the creation of a SOL treasury to diversify its assets.

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

A lawyer representing one of the co-founders of crypto mining service Hashflare has addressed how their criminal case may move forward after the pair received “self-deport” letters from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

In an April 11 filing in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington, Hashflare co-founders Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin reported they had received a DHS letter directing them to “leave the United States” as part of a push by the Trump administration to effect mass deportations. The government letter contradicted orders from Judge Robert Lasnik, who restricted travel for Potapenko and Turogin as part of their bail conditions.

In February, the Estonian nationals pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud as part of a deal with authorities. Between 2015 and 2019, the two were responsible for defrauding Hashflare users out of more than $550 million. They also raised $25 million from investors in 2017, claiming they would establish a digital bank called Polybius. The firm was never created.

Indicted in October 2022, Potapenko and Turogin were arrested and held in Estonia before their extradition to the US in May 2024. Both have been free on bail since July 2024 but could face up to 20 years in prison each at sentencing.

Ordered to leave, forced to stay

“[Potapenko and Turogin each] got letters from DHS to their personal email saying ‘deport immediately,’” Reed Smith partner and defense counsel Mark Bini told Cointelegraph. “It caused some angst because [our client and his co-defendant], their conditions of release include that they comply with the law. And here you have this letter saying if you stay in the country, you’re breaking the law. And of course, their bail conditions say they can’t leave the Seattle area.” 

Related: Russian Gotbit founder strikes $23M plea deal with US prosecutors

The DHS letters ordering certain people to “depart the United States immediately” were reportedly sent to thousands of immigrants who had used the government’s CBP One app to enter the country legally. However, some citizens reported receiving the same letter in US President Donald Trump’s attempts to effect deportations through his office.  

Bini initially thought it was a possibility that the US government was suggesting that Potapenko or Turogin “self-deport” to Estonia after the Justice Department issued a memo hinting it would change its enforcement policy in criminal cases involving crypto. The Hashflare co-founders had been expected to remain in the jurisdiction until at least Aug. 14 for their sentencing hearings.

“I have not encountered this situation before, where you have essentially two folks in the federal government telling you conflicting things,” said Bini. 

The attorney added that Potapenko or Turogin now carried letters with them at all times that stated DHS had deferred action on their “self-deportation” for one year in the event that authorities mistakenly tried to detain them and remove them from the country. Though the pair could still receive prison time, Potapenko, Turogin and Hashflare reported returning $400 million in crypto payments to users and “agreed to forfeit their interests in assets that the government froze in 2022.”

“We’re going to try and convince the judge to frankly side with DHS and let them self-deport to Estonia to their families because we believe that there was no actual financial harm to the customers of Hashflare,” said Bini. “It’s a weird [case] because for our clients, we want to be deported. Our clients are Estonian. Their families are Estonian.” 

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple and industry with no crypto legal precedent set

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in a persistent downtrend since January, but the April 22 surge past $91,000 marks its first higher high breakout of the year and the potential start of a new longer-term uptrend.Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The higher high pattern occurred after BTC moved above its previous lower high and resistance at $88,500, but the real factor that will keep price afloat is buying volumes in various cohorts of the Bitcoin market.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $381 million on April 21, levels not seen since Jan. 30.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue

Rising spot BTC inflows, along with Bitcoin’s increase in price, point to a possible resurgence in institutional demand for Bitcoin, and the change in trend from the ETFs could offset the selling pressure that has put a cap on BTC price for months.

However, retail investor demand (buy volumes between $0 and 10,000) remained below 0%, which suggested that low volume buyers are not back yet. Over the past year, these investors have lagged behind BTC price breakouts, but they strengthen price momentum once the investor volume turns positive.

Bitcoin retail investor demand by 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn highlighted that the present rally is leverage-driven rather than spot volume-driven. Glassnode data also pointed out that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased by $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.

For Bitcoin price to sustain a strong position above $90,000, the current discrepancy between futures traders and retail traders needs to decrease.

Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street’s $13T wipeout

Bitcoin could gain “70% to 80% from here”

From a longer-term perspective, DYOR crypto founder Hitesh Malviya said BTC could gain 70% to 80% if it maintains a MVRV ratio of 2 for the next six weeks.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key onchain metric, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap—the value of coins at their last transaction price. Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 often signals overvaluation and market tops, while values near 2 have preceded strong price rallies.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s MVRV score remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, coinciding with its all-time high. Recently, the metric fell below 2 during the market correction, but it is now attempting to reclaim this key level.

Related: Bitcoin traders turn to $93K yearly open as BTC price hits 6-week high

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in a persistent downtrend since January, but the April 22 surge past $91,000 marks its first higher high breakout of the year and the potential start of a new longer-term uptrend.Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The higher high pattern occurred after BTC moved above its previous lower high and resistance at $88,500, but the real factor that will keep price afloat is buying volumes in various cohorts of the Bitcoin market.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $381 million on April 21, levels not seen since Jan. 30.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue

Rising spot BTC inflows, along with Bitcoin’s increase in price, point to a possible resurgence in institutional demand for Bitcoin, and the change in trend from the ETFs could offset the selling pressure that has put a cap on BTC price for months.

However, retail investor demand (buy volumes between $0 and 10,000) remained below 0%, which suggested that low volume buyers are not back yet. Over the past year, these investors have lagged behind BTC price breakouts, but they strengthen price momentum once the investor volume turns positive.

Bitcoin retail investor demand by 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn highlighted that the present rally is leverage-driven rather than spot volume-driven. Glassnode data also pointed out that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased by $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.

For Bitcoin price to sustain a strong position above $90,000, the current discrepancy between futures traders and retail traders needs to decrease.

Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street’s $13T wipeout

Bitcoin could gain “70% to 80% from here”

From a longer-term perspective, DYOR crypto founder Hitesh Malviya said BTC could gain 70% to 80% if it maintains a MVRV ratio of 2 for the next six weeks.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key onchain metric, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap—the value of coins at their last transaction price. Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 often signals overvaluation and market tops, while values near 2 have preceded strong price rallies.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s MVRV score remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, coinciding with its all-time high. Recently, the metric fell below 2 during the market correction, but it is now attempting to reclaim this key level.

Related: Bitcoin traders turn to $93K yearly open as BTC price hits 6-week high

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in a persistent downtrend since January, but the April 22 surge past $91,000 marks its first higher high breakout of the year and the potential start of a new longer-term uptrend.Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The higher high pattern occurred after BTC moved above its previous lower high and resistance at $88,500, but the real factor that will keep price afloat is buying volumes in various cohorts of the Bitcoin market.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $381 million on April 21, levels not seen since Jan. 30.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue

Rising spot BTC inflows, along with Bitcoin’s increase in price, point to a possible resurgence in institutional demand for Bitcoin, and the change in trend from the ETFs could offset the selling pressure that has put a cap on BTC price for months.

However, retail investor demand (buy volumes between $0 and 10,000) remained below 0%, which suggested that low volume buyers are not back yet. Over the past year, these investors have lagged behind BTC price breakouts, but they strengthen price momentum once the investor volume turns positive.

Bitcoin retail investor demand by 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn highlighted that the present rally is leverage-driven rather than spot volume-driven. Glassnode data also pointed out that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased by $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.

For Bitcoin price to sustain a strong position above $90,000, the current discrepancy between futures traders and retail traders needs to decrease.

Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street’s $13T wipeout

Bitcoin could gain “70% to 80% from here”

From a longer-term perspective, DYOR crypto founder Hitesh Malviya said BTC could gain 70% to 80% if it maintains a MVRV ratio of 2 for the next six weeks.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key onchain metric, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap—the value of coins at their last transaction price. Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 often signals overvaluation and market tops, while values near 2 have preceded strong price rallies.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s MVRV score remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, coinciding with its all-time high. Recently, the metric fell below 2 during the market correction, but it is now attempting to reclaim this key level.

Related: Bitcoin traders turn to $93K yearly open as BTC price hits 6-week high

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Demand from financial institutions could push the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as high as $200,000 per coin in 2025, according to two research reports reviewed by Cointelegraph. 

Analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI said institutional Bitcoin demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and traders seeking to hedge against macroeconomic risk could cause Bitcoin’s price to more than double this year.

“While the forecast is optimistic, it’s also conditional. Any black swan — from a major regulatory clampdown to a geopolitical event — can disrupt trajectories,” Fei Chen, Intellectia AI’s chief investment strategist, told Cointelegraph. 

Bitcoin ETF inflows since January 2024. Source: CoinGlass

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs clock biggest inflows since January as crypto markets gain

Bullish sentiment

The reports come as Bitcoin broke past $90,000 on April 22 for the first time in six weeks, reflecting traders embracing Bitcoin and gold as potential hedges against looming trade wars and geopolitical volatility. 

The price action followed the biggest daily net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since January. 

The US’s 11 spot BTC funds collectively pulled more than $380 million in net inflows on April 21, according to CoinGlass data.

Intellectia AI said institutional demand drivers — including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken — could continue to propel positive price action. 

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries already hold nearly $65 billion worth of BTC, according to data from Bitcointreasuries.net.

Hedgers still prefer gold over Bitcoin. Source: Binance ResearchHedging or speculation?

Gold and BTC “appear to have become more important components of investors’ portfolios structurally” as they increasingly seek to hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation, investment bank JP Morgan said in a January research note. 

However, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold — historically a preferred hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty — has been low since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping import tariffs on April 2, Binance Research said on April 7. 

In fact, Bitcoin has been more closely correlated with equities, Binance said. 

Paradoxically, sustained ETF inflows could further diminish Bitcoin’s status as a macroeconomic hedge, eroding one of its most attractive traits for institutions, Spencer Yang, a core contributor for crypto infrastructure project Fractal Bitcoin, told Cointelegraph. 

“Despite growing institutional interest, Bitcoin’s long-term resilience won’t be secured by balance sheet optics alone — it depends on real usage,” Yang said. 

“That means people actually transacting, building, and experimenting on the network — not just holding BTC as a speculative asset.”

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s breaks below key gold support

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

For instance, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

That is in contrast to the ongoing decoupling narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC vs gold breakdowns are historically bearish

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern also repeated in earlier cycles, namely the 2019-2020 and 2018-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.