The Alabama Securities Commission, a financial regulator for the US state, dropped its lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase, which accused the company of violating securities laws by offering staking services to clients.

The regulator cited the ongoing work between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the crypto industry to develop clear crypto regulations as the primary reason for dropping the litigation, according to the April 23 legal filing shared by Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal.

The filing read:

“The SEC has announced the formation of a new task force to, among other things, provide guidance for the promulgation of rules regarding the regulation of cryptocurrency products and services.”

“Due to the foregoing, the Commission believes it would be apt to allow policymakers time to consider regulatory constructs,” the filing continued.

The Alabama Securities Commission filed its lawsuit against Coinbase in June 2023, alongside state regulators from California, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, South Carolina, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The Alabama Securities Commission dismisses its 2023 lawsuit against Coinbase. Source: Paul Grewal

The Commission’s dropped lawsuit reflects the positive regulatory shift toward cryptocurrencies in the United States as reform at the federal level matriculates into state-level regulatory policy.

Related: Oregon targets Coinbase after SEC drops its federal lawsuit

US states drop Coinbase lawsuit but half still holding out

Five of the 10 states that filed the litigation against Coinbase for its staking services have dropped their lawsuits.

On March 13, Vermont’s Department of Financial Regulation became the first of the 10 state regulators to drop the staking lawsuit against Coinbase.

South Carolina’s securities watchdog was the next to drop the 2023 litigation against Coinbase, dismissing the lawsuit on March 28.

Grewal announced that Kentucky’s Department of Financial Institutions followed Vermont and South Carolina’s lead on April 1 by also dismissing its Coinbase lawsuit.

Despite the domino effect of states rescinding litigation against the crypto exchange, the Coinbase chief legal officer said that more work needs to be done.

“Five holdouts are still electing to waste taxpayer resources on lawsuits, and four of those have banned staking with Coinbase, depriving consumers of the right to earn on their platform of choice,” Grewal wrote in an April 23 X post.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Officials with the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crypto task force met with the El Salvador National Commission on Digital Assets (CNAD) to discuss regulation and a proposed cross-border sandbox.

In an April 22 memo, the SEC’s crypto task force reported meeting with officials from El Salvador, Perkin Law Firm, and former Goldman Sachs partner Heather Shemilt as part of the commission’s outreach to the industry. The representatives discussed US-El Salvador cross-border collaboration on crypto regulation at a time when the relationship between the two countries was in the national spotlight over immigration and US deportations to an El Salvador prison.

According to the meeting notes, El Salvador’s national commission agreed to collaborate with the SEC to establish a sandbox pilot program, capped at $10,000 for each scenario. The program proposed allowing brokers licensed in the US to obtain a digital asset license in El Salvador and issue “non-securities” tokens in collaboration with a local company.

Many in the crypto industry see Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele as behind the country’s efforts to adopt cryptocurrency since he announced legislation to recognize Bitcoin (BTC) as legal tender in 2021. Bukele met with US President Donald Trump on April 14, discussing details of a $6 million deal in which the Trump administration has been sending immigrants, whose legal status to be in the US is unclear, to prisons in El Salvador. Some of these deportations violated orders from federal judges.

Related: Bitcoin takes back seat as Trump, Bukele focus on trade and immigration

New SEC chair sworn in

It’s unclear if the Trump administration may intend to deepen ties to El Salvador through additional regulatory partnerships or stepping up deportations in its existing deal. Cointelegraph reached out to SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who heads the crypto task force, for comment, but did not receive a response at the time of publication.

The meeting report came roughly a day after the SEC announced that Paul Atkins had been sworn in as the commission’s new chair, following Gary Gensler and acting chair Mark Uyeda. During his swearing-in ceremony, Atkins said his top priority would be to “provide a firm regulatory foundation for digital assets.” 

Magazine: Ethereum maxis should become ‘assholes’ to win TradFi tokenization race

Luxury hospitality platform Dorsia is rolling out crypto payments for clients in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and six Arab nations.

The payments feature is being enabled through a partnership with MoonPay, the companies told Cointelegraph. With the integration, users will be able to book luxury travel experiences and complete transactions directly in USDC (USDC) and Solana-based tokens through the Dorsia app.

“[…] integrating crypto payments is a natural next step in aligning with the evolving preferences of our members,” Marc Lotenberg, founder and CEO of Dorsia, said in an interview.

Dorsia is the latest luxury firm to turn to crypto services for high-net-worth individuals. The industry has been highly active in the Web3 space over the past few years, exploring crypto on-ramps and customer engagement features, such as non-fungible tokens and metaverses.

Luxury carmakers Lamborghini and Ferrari, and watchmakers like Patek Philippe, are a few companies accepting payments in cryptocurrencies.

Dorsia is a luxury hospitality app that connects its members with high-end restaurants and cultural experiences. Instead of traditional booking models, Dorsia uses dynamic pricing and a membership-based system for reservations at luxury facilities. According to Grand View Research, the luxury travel market is expected to reach $2.3 trillion by 2030.

Related: Gucci the latest luxury brand to accept crypto payments in store

The company has raised a total of $50.4 million in funding across Seed and Series A rounds. Major backers include Index Ventures, RedSea, and individuals from Meta, Uber, Atomic, Groot Hospitality, and the Rockwell Group.

Related: Polygon-based lending platform to provide crypto liquidity for luxury items

MoonPay expands in 2024

Dorsia isn’t the first luxury brand to partner with MoonPay. According to the company’s CEO, Ivan Soto-Wright, it also offers a crypto on-ramp for clients like fashion house Gucci, carmaker Bugatti, and auction house Christie’s.

MoonPay’s net revenue increased 112% in 2024, while transaction volume in Q1 2025 soared 123%, according to the company.

In January, MoonPay acquired the Solana-based payment processor Helio in a $175 million deal. The acquisition enabled a broader range of partnerships for payments, including with Dorsia, the company revealed. MoonPay has also recently acquired Iron to facilitate payments in stablecoins for merchants.

Magazine: AI Eye: AI travel booking hilariously bad, 3 weird uses for ChatGPT, crypto plugins

Key points:

Bitcoin’s rally is backed by solid institutional buying in the spot BTC ETFs.

A rally above the $95,000 level could be difficult, but analysts’ end-of-year price projections now extend to $200,000.

Select altcoins are showing signs of a price bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied close to the $95,000 resistance level on April 23 as the cryptocurrency finds support from rising spot BTC ETF inflows and positive macroeconomic news in the United States. According to Farside Investors, the funds recorded net inflows of $381.3 million on April 21 and $912.7 million on April 22.

Analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI said that institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs and BTC’s use as a hedge against macroeconomic risk could propel the price to $200,000 in 2025.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Not everyone is convinced about the current rally. 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen questioned the sustainability of the Bitcoin rally in an April 23 markets report, as the stablecoin minting indicator was “yet to return to high-activity levels.”

Could Bitcoin break above the $95,000 mark, pulling altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

Bitcoin formed a Doji candlestick pattern on April 23, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears near the $95,000 overhead resistance.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day exponential moving average ($85,773) has started to turn up, and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers do not cede much ground to the bears, it enhances the prospects of a rally above $95,000. The BTC/USDT pair may then skyrocket to $100,000 and subsequently to $107,000.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down sharply from $95,000 and plunges below the moving averages. 

Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) turned up sharply on April 22 and rose above the 20-day EMA ($1,676). Buyers will try to retain the advantage by pushing the price above the 50-day SMA ($1,830) on April 23.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could jump to the breakdown level of $2,111. Sellers will try to stall the recovery at $2,111, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could soar to $2,550. Such a move suggests that the corrective phase may be over.

Conversely, if the price turns down sharply from $2,111, it indicates that the bears are active at higher levels. That could keep the pair range-bound between $2,111 and $1,368 for a while longer.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) rose above the 50-day SMA ($2.20), but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears are expected to defend the resistance line with all their might because a break and close above it signals a potential trend change. The XRP/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $3.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it signals that bears remain in command. The pair may then retest the $2 support, which is likely to attract buyers.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) broke out of the downtrend line on April 21, but higher levels are attracting solid selling by the bears.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair could drop to the moving averages, an important near-term support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the moving averages with strength, the prospects of a rally to $644 and thereafter to $680 increase. 

Alternatively, a break and close below the moving averages indicates that the breakout above the downtrend line may have been a bull trap. The pair then risks falling to $566.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($133) on April 22 and is attempting to climb above the overhead resistance at $153 on April 23.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA is sloping up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating an advantage to buyers. A close above $153 clears the path for a rally to $180. Such a move brings the large $110 to $260 range into play.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to make a comeback, they will have to swiftly pull the price below the moving averages. If they do that, the SOL/USDT pair could plunge to the $120 to $110 support zone.

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the moving averages on April 22, indicating that the bulls are on a comeback.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.21, where the bears are expected to step in. If the price turns down from $0.21 and breaks below the moving averages, it signals a range-bound action in the near term. The DOGE/USDT pair could swing between $0.21 and $0.14 for some time.

Contrarily, a break and close above $0.21 completes a double-bottom pattern. The pair could then rally toward its target objective of $0.28.

Cardano price prediction

Buyers pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.64) on April 22 and are trying to sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.68) on April 23.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA is flattish, but the RSI has jumped into positive territory, indicating that the momentum has turned positive. A close above the 50-day SMA opens the gates for a rally to $0.83.

Buyers are expected to defend the zone between the 20-day EMA and $0.58 on the downside. Sellers will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink the ADA/USDT pair below $0.58. The pair may then slump to $0.50.

Related: Why is Bitcoin price up today?

Chainlink price prediction

Chainlink (LINK) turned up from the 20-day EMA ($13.16) and rose above the 50-day SMA ($13.62) on April 22.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The LINK/USDT pair could rise to $16, where the bears may mount a strong defense. If buyers do not allow the price to dip back below the 20-day EMA, it improves the prospects of a rally to the resistance line of the descending channel pattern. A trend change will be signaled on a break above the channel.

The 20-day EMA is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. A dive below the 20-day EMA opens the doors for a fall to $11.89 and later to the support line.

Avalanche price prediction

Avalanche (AVAX) broke out of the downtrend line on April 22, indicating that the bears are losing their grip.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears will try to halt the recovery at $23.50 because if they fail in their endeavor, the AVAX/USDT pair will complete a double-bottom pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective of $31.73.

If the price turns down from $23.50, the bulls will try to buy the dips to the 20-day EMA ($19.72). A bounce off the 20-day EMA increases the likelihood of a break above $23.50. Contrarily, a break below the moving averages signals a range formation between $15.27 and $23.50.

Sui price prediction

Sui (SUI) soared above the moving averages on April 22 and the overhead resistance at $2.86 on April 23.

SUI/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The long wick on the candlestick shows selling above $2.86, but if the bulls do not give up much ground, the possibility of a break above the overhead resistance increases. That could propel the SUI/USDT pair to $3.25 and then to $3.50.

The 20-day EMA ($2.29) is expected to act as strong support on any pullback. A break and close below the 20-day EMA suggests the bullish momentum has weakened. That could result in a range formation in the near term.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently called for “Bretton Woods institutions,” such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to reorient themselves, a signal that the global monetary order could be shifting.

Speaking at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) on April 23, Bessent called on the IMF and the World Bank to correct trade imbalances and protect the value of fiat currencies against exchange rate risk.

“The Bretton Woods institutions must step back from their sprawling and unfocused agendas,” Bessent said. He added:

“The IMF’s mission is to promote international monetary cooperation, facilitate the balanced growth of international trade, encourage economic growth, and discourage harmful policies like competitive exchange rate depreciation.”

Bessent’s call for the IMF to correct trade imbalances between countries, specifically the US and China, coincides with a decline in the US dollar to three-year lows, $36 trillion in US government debt, and stiff economic competition from China.

The Dollar Currency Index (DXY), a measure of the US dollar’s strength relative to other major fiat currencies, plunges to three-year lows. Source: TradingView

Investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio argues that the world is experiencing a global macroeconomic shift that will upend the post-WWII financial order and eventually replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency, potentially with a digital form of money.

Related: Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar

The Bretton Woods Agreement

The Bretton Woods Agreement was signed in 1944 and pegged the currencies of 44 countries to the value of the US dollar, which, at that point, was pegged to the value of gold at $35 per ounce.

Eliminating complex foreign exchange risks between freely floating currencies to make global trade more efficient was the primary goal of the agreement.

US President Richard Nixon delivers the infamous “Nixon shock” speech in August 1971, suspending the dollar’s convertibility to gold. Source: Richard Nixon Presidential Library

In August 1971, US President Richard Nixon announced the end of the dollar’s convertibility to gold — formally ending the Bretton Woods agreement in a move that was supposed to be temporary.

“Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it does today,” Nixon incorrectly told Americans during his now-infamous address.

The IMF and the World Bank, which were spawned from the Bretton Woods agreement, continue operating in an attempt to curb the effects of free-floating fiat currencies on the foreign exchange market.

Bessent eyes stablecoins to protect the US dollar, BTC advocates have another idea

Speaking at the White House Digital Asset Summit on March 7, Bessent said stablecoins could drive international demand for US dollars and US government debt instruments.

Bessent added that the Trump administration will use stablecoins to protect the US dollar and its status as the global reserve currency.

Bitcoin maximalist Max Keiser argued against this plan, predicting that gold-backed stablecoins would outcompete dollar-pegged tokens due to the desire for low-volatility, inflation-resistant money.

The US dollar’s purchasing power has declined by over 90% since the year 1900. Source: Visual Capitalist

In March this year, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote that the $36 trillion US national debt could drive investors to Bitcoin (BTC) as market participants start to see BTC as a better store of value than the US dollar.

Bitwise executive Jeff Park voiced a similar prediction in February, focused on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

The analyst wrote that the tumult from the ongoing trade war would cause worldwide inflation, which would cause individuals to seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin, driving its price much higher in the long term.

Magazine: Bitcoin payments are being undermined by centralized stablecoins

Some of the top holders of Donald Trump’s memecoin could come out of the shadows to appear for a dinner the US President is planning to host on May 22.

As of April 23, the official Trump memecoin (TRUMP) website offered the opportunity for the “top 220” holders to meet the president in person at his golf club in Washington, DC. At the time of publication, the guest list for the event was unclear, but the project stated any tokenholder who applied had to pass a background check, “can not be from a [Know Your Customer] watchlist country,” and could not have any additional guests.

The memecoin, which the then-president-elect launched on Jan. 17 before taking office, has been heavily criticized by the crypto industry and lawmakers for potentially allowing foreign officials and interest groups to send money directly to the US President without proper disclosure and oversight. The team behind the project controls 80% of the total supply, while the identities of many of the other top tokenholders are mainly unknown.

Top TRUMP memecoin holders as of April 23. Source: TRUMP token

The price of the TRUMP memecoin surged roughly 52% from $9.30 to $14.20 shortly after the dinner announcement. After the token launched on Jan. 17, the project’s market capitalization increased to roughly $15 billion before dropping more than 50% by Jan. 20.

Related: US lawmaker says TRUMP coin could risk national security

Trump’s wife released her MELANIA memecoin on Jan. 19. The token followed similar price movement to TRUMP’s, but, as of April 23, it had fallen by more than 90% from its all-time high price of $13.73. Blockchain data showed the project’s team moved roughly $30 million of the token’s community funds in April.

Campaigning on crypto

During his first term in 2019, Trump said he was “not a fan” of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), later comparing the coin to a “scam.” However, he appeared to shift campaign strategies when running for office again: releasing his own line of non-fungible tokens, accepting crypto donations, and appearing at crypto-themed events and conferences.

Before the 2024 election, Trump arranged a similar dinner in Florida with supporters who purchased his “mugshot” NFTs — featuring a picture of the then-candidate at his surrender to authorities in Georgia related to attempts to overturn the 2020 election. It’s unclear whether any of the same individuals who attended the May 2024 event are among the top memecoin holders.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle, anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events, as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: Every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break? That is what onchain analyst James Check suggests.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check said that the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” Check paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. As such, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market — and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle—anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events—as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break?

That’s exactly what leading on-chain analyst James Check suggests in our latest interview. In his view, the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” James paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. And in that world, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market—and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel—and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle, anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events, as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: Every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break? That is what onchain analyst James Check suggests.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check said that the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” Check paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. As such, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market — and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle—anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events—as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break?

That’s exactly what leading on-chain analyst James Check suggests in our latest interview. In his view, the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” James paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. And in that world, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market—and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel—and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle, anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events, as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: Every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break? That is what onchain analyst James Check suggests.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check said that the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” Check paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. As such, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market — and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle—anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events—as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break?

That’s exactly what leading on-chain analyst James Check suggests in our latest interview. In his view, the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” James paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. And in that world, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market—and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel—and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle, anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events, as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: Every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break? That is what onchain analyst James Check suggests.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check said that the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” Check paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. As such, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market — and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle—anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events—as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break?

That’s exactly what leading on-chain analyst James Check suggests in our latest interview. In his view, the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” James paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. And in that world, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market—and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel—and don’t forget to subscribe!