Opinion by: Hedi Navazan, chief compliance officer at 1inch

Web3 needs a clear regulatory system that addresses innovation bottlenecks and user safety in decentralized finance (DeFi). A one-size-fits-all approach cannot be achieved to regulate DeFi. The industry needs custom, risk-based approaches that balance innovation, security and compliance.

DeFi’s challenges and rules

A common critique is that regulatory scrutiny leads to the death of innovation, tracing this situation back to the Biden administration. In 2022, uncertainty for crypto businesses increased following lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance and OpenSea for alleged violations of securities laws.

Under the US administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission agreed to dismiss the lawsuit against Coinbase, as the agency reversed the crypto stance, hinting at a path toward regulation with clear boundaries.

Many would argue that the same risk is the same rule. Imposing traditional finance requirements on DeFi simply will not work from many aspects but the most technical challenges.

Openness, transparency, immutability, and automation are key parameters of DeFi. Without clear regulations, however, the prevalent issue of “Ponzi-like schemes” can divert focus from effective innovation use cases to conjuring a “deceptive perception” of blockchain technology. 

Guidance and clarity from regulatory bodies can reduce significant risks for retail users.

Policymakers should take time to understand DeFi’s architecture before introducing restrictive measures. DeFi needs risk-based regulatory models that understand its architecture and address illicit activity and consumer protection. 

Self-regulatory frameworks cultivate transparency and security in DeFi

The entire industry highly recommends implementing a self-regulatory framework that ensures continuous innovation while simultaneously ensuring consumer safety and financial transparency. 

Take the example of DeFi platforms that have taken a self-regulatory approach by implementing robust security measures, including transaction monitoring, wallet screening and implementing a blacklist mechanism that restricts a wallet of suspicion with illicit activity. 

Sound security measures would help DeFi projects monitor onchain activity and prevent system misuse. Self-regulation can help DeFi projects operate with greater legitimacy, yet it may not be the only solution.

Clear structure and governance are key

It’s no secret that institutional players are waiting for the regulatory green light. Adding to the list of regulatory frameworks, Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) sets stepping stones for future DeFi regulations that can lead to institutional adoption of DeFi. It provides businesses with regulatory clarity and a framework to operate.

Many crypto projects will struggle and die as a result of higher compliance costs associated with MiCA, which will enforce a more reliable ecosystem by requiring augmented transparency from issuers and quickly attract institutional capital for innovation. Clear regulations will lead to more investments in projects that support investor trust.

Anonymity in crypto is quickly disappearing. Blockchain analytics tools, regulators and companies can monitor suspicious activity while preserving user privacy to some extent. Future adaptations of MiCA regulations can enable compliance-focused DeFi solutions, such as compliant liquidity pools and blockchain-based identity verification.

Regulatory clarity can break barriers to DeFi integration

The banks’ iron gate has been another significant barrier. Compliance officers frequently witness banks erect walls to keep crypto out. Bank supervisors distance companies that are out of compliance, even if it’s indirect scrutiny or fines, slamming doors on crypto projects’ financial operations.

Clear regulations will address this issue and make compliance a facilitator, not a barrier, for DeFi and banking integration. In the future, traditional banks will integrate DeFi. Institutions will not replace banks but will merge DeFi’s efficiencies with TradFi’s structure.

Recent: Hester Peirce calls for SEC rulemaking to ‘bake in’ crypto regulation

The repeal of Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121 in January 2025 mitigated accounting burdens for banks to recognize crypto assets held for customers as both assets and liabilities on their balance sheets. The previous laws created hurdles of increased capital reserve requirements and other regulatory challenges.

SAB 122 aims to provide structured solutions from reactive compliance to proactive financial integration — a step toward creating DeFi and banking synergy. Crypto companies must still follow accounting principles and disclosure requirements to protect crypto assets.

Clear regulations can increase the frequency of banking use cases, such as custody, reserve backing, asset tokenization, stablecoin issuance and offering accounts to digital asset businesses.

Building bridges between regulators and innovators in DeFi

Experts pointing out concerns about DeFi’s over-regulation killing innovation can now address them using “regulatory sandboxes.” These dispense startups with a “secure zone” to test their products before committing to full-scale regulatory mandates. For example, startups in the United Kingdom under the Financial Conduct Authority are thriving using this “trial and error” method that has accelerated innovation.

These have enabled businesses to test innovation and business models in a real-world setting under regulator supervision. Sandboxes could be accessible to licensed entities, unregulated startups or companies outside the financial services sector.

Similarly, the European Union’s DLT Pilot Regime advances innovation and competition, encouraging market entry for startups by reducing upfront compliance costs through “gates” that align legal frameworks at each level while upgrading technological innovation.

Clear regulations can cultivate and support innovation through open dialogue between regulators and innovators.

Opinion by: Hedi Navazan, chief compliance officer at 1inch.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Whales and large institutions continue their aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, with Strategy hinting at another Bitcoin investment that may be announced on Monday.

Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted at another imminent Bitcoin (BTC) investment on April 27, a week after the firm acquired $555 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $84,785 per coin.

“Stay Humble. Stack Sats,” Saylor wrote, spurring investor speculation of the size of the firm’s next Bitcoin investment.

Source: Michael Saylor

“1.4-1.6b range imo,” wrote popular blockchain analyst RunnerXBT in anticipation of Saylor’s announcement, which would make it three times as large as Strategy’s previous investment.

Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Strategy is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with over 538,200 Bitcoin worth over $50.5 billion, Bitbo data shows.

The 10 largest Bitcoin holding companies. Source: Bitbo

The firm’s investment philosophy inspired other companies to adopt Bitcoin, including Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, which surpassed 5,000 BTC holdings on April 24, in an effort to lead Bitcoin adoption in Asia.

Related: Trump fought the bond market, the bond market won: Saifedean Ammous

ETFs log $3 billion, and whales aggressively accumulate Bitcoin

Whales, or large Bitcoin investors, are also accumulating Bitcoin under the $100,000 psychological mark.

Whale wallets holding at least $1 million worth of Bitcoin restarted their accumulation at the beginning of April, increasing from 124,000 wallets on April 7 to over 137,600 wallets on April 26, Glassnode data shows.

Bitcoin addresses with over $1 million balance. Source: Glassnode 

The aggressive whale accumulation helped Bitcoin’s recovery to above $94,000, Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC have been aggressively accumulating, with a trend score of 0.90, while smaller investors are also pivoting toward long-term holding.”

“Trump confirmed discussions with China are ongoing, with Beijing offering exemptions on select US imports, suggesting a softening tone. Still, markets are awaiting tangible action before re-rating global risk,” he added.

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have also contributed to Bitcoin’s near 12% weekly recovery.

Bitcoin ETF Flow, USD, million. Source: Farside Investors

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $3 billion worth of cumulative net inflows during the past week, marking their second-highest week of investments since launching, Farside Investors data shows.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

Whales and large institutions continue their aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, with Strategy hinting at another Bitcoin investment that may be announced on Monday.

Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted at another imminent Bitcoin (BTC) investment on April 27, a week after the firm acquired $555 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $84,785 per coin.

“Stay Humble. Stack Sats,” Saylor wrote, spurring investor speculation of the size of the firm’s next Bitcoin investment.

Source: Michael Saylor

“1.4-1.6b range imo,” wrote popular blockchain analyst RunnerXBT in anticipation of Saylor’s announcement, which would make it three times as large as Strategy’s previous investment.

Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Strategy is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with over 538,200 Bitcoin worth over $50.5 billion, Bitbo data shows.

The 10 largest Bitcoin holding companies. Source: Bitbo

The firm’s investment philosophy inspired other companies to adopt Bitcoin, including Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, which surpassed 5,000 BTC holdings on April 24, in an effort to lead Bitcoin adoption in Asia.

Related: Trump fought the bond market, the bond market won: Saifedean Ammous

ETFs log $3 billion, and whales aggressively accumulate Bitcoin

Whales, or large Bitcoin investors, are also accumulating Bitcoin under the $100,000 psychological mark.

Whale wallets holding at least $1 million worth of Bitcoin restarted their accumulation at the beginning of April, increasing from 124,000 wallets on April 7 to over 137,600 wallets on April 26, Glassnode data shows.

Bitcoin addresses with over $1 million balance. Source: Glassnode 

The aggressive whale accumulation helped Bitcoin’s recovery to above $94,000, Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC have been aggressively accumulating, with a trend score of 0.90, while smaller investors are also pivoting toward long-term holding.”

“Trump confirmed discussions with China are ongoing, with Beijing offering exemptions on select US imports, suggesting a softening tone. Still, markets are awaiting tangible action before re-rating global risk,” he added.

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have also contributed to Bitcoin’s near 12% weekly recovery.

Bitcoin ETF Flow, USD, million. Source: Farside Investors

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $3 billion worth of cumulative net inflows during the past week, marking their second-highest week of investments since launching, Farside Investors data shows.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

El Salvador, the world’s first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, is still acquiring Bitcoin despite comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appearing to claim the opposite.

The treasury of El Salvador acquired 7 Bitcoin (BTC) worth over $650,000 in the seven days leading up to April 27, blockchain data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office shows.

When asked about the country’s Bitcoin investments, Rodrigo Valdes, director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the IMF, said that the country continues to comply with its agreement to halt government Bitcoin accumulation.

El Salvador Bitcoin holdings. Source: El Salvador Bitcoin Office

“In terms of El Salvador, let me say that I can confirm that they continue to comply with their commitment of non-accumulation of Bitcoin by the overall fiscal sector, which is the performance criteria that we have,” said Valdes during an April 26 press briefing.

Related: Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

“But on top of that, I think this is very important for the discussion in El Salvador,” he added. “The program of El Salvador is not about Bitcoin. It’s much more, much deeper in structural reforms, in terms of governance, in terms of transparency.”

In December 2024, El Salvador struck a deal with the IMF for a $1.4 billion loan, which required the government to drop Bitcoin’s status as a legal tender and stop its BTC accumulation.

Related: Serbia’s Prince Filip says Bitcoin is being stifled, expects huge rally

Flexible interpretation leaves room for Bitcoin buys

The IMF’s agreement may still enable room for purchases through non-governmental entities, according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

“The IMF’s ‘flexible interpretation’ suggests purchases may involve non-public sector entities or reclassified assets, maintaining technical compliance,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This alternative approach allows El Salvador to retain its Bitcoin-friendly image while securing critical IMF funding to address unsustainable public debt and limited reserves.”

Lian added that El Salvador’s strategy highlights the growing tension between financial innovation and traditional economic policies.

“El Salvador’s experience offers valuable lessons for nations exploring crypto adoption, emphasizing the need for robust regulatory frameworks and state capacity to navigate international financial pressures,” he added.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

Investment firms with Bitcoin-focused treasuries are front-running global Bitcoin adoption, which may see the world’s first cryptocurrency soar to a $200 trillion market capitalization in the coming decade.

Institutions and governments worldwide are starting to recognize the unique monetary properties of Bitcoin (BTC), according to Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream and the inventor of Hashcash.

“$MSTR and other treasury companies are an arbitrage of the dislocation between the bitcoin future and todays fiat world,” Back wrote in an April 26 X post.

“A sustainable and scalable $100-$200 trillion trade front-running hyperbitcoinization. scalable enough for most big listed companies to move to btc treasury,” he added.

Hyperbitcoinization refers to the theoretical future where Bitcoin soars to become the largest global currency, replacing fiat money due to its inflationary economics and growing distrust in the legacy financial system.

Source: Adam Back

Related: Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Bitcoin’s price outpacing fiat money inflation remains the main driver of global hyperbitcoinization, Back said, adding:

“Some people think treasury strategy is a temporary glitch. i’m saying no it’s a logical and sustainable arbitrage. but not for ever, the driver is bitcoin price going up over 4 year periods faster than interest and inflation.”

Back’s comments come nearly two months after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve from BTC forfeited in government criminal cases.

Related: Serbia’s Prince Filip says Bitcoin is being stifled, expects huge rally

Global firms continue Bitcoin accumulation

Continued Bitcoin investments from the likes of Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, may inspire more global firms to follow suit.

Strategy’s approach is proving to be lucrative, with the firm’s Bitcoin treasury generating over $5.1 billion worth of profit since the beginning of 2025, according to Strategy’s co-founder, Michael Saylor.

Source: Michael Saylor

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, also known as “Asia’s MicroStrategy,”  adopted a similar strategy, since surpassing 5,000 BTC in total holdings on April 24, Cointelegraph reported.

As Asia’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Metaplanet plans to acquire 21,000 BTC by 2026.

US financial institutions may also have more confidence in adopting Bitcoin after the US Federal Reserve withdrew its 2022 guidance discouraging banks from engaging with cryptocurrency. “Banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin,” Saylor said in response to the guidance withdrawal.

“Banks will now be supervised through normal processes, signaling a more open regulatory environment for digital asset integration,” Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

Investment firms with Bitcoin-focused treasuries are front-running global Bitcoin adoption, which may see the world’s first cryptocurrency soar to a $200 trillion market capitalization in the coming decade.

Institutions and governments worldwide are starting to recognize the unique monetary properties of Bitcoin (BTC), according to Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream and the inventor of Hashcash.

“$MSTR and other treasury companies are an arbitrage of the dislocation between the bitcoin future and todays fiat world,” Back wrote in an April 26 X post.

“A sustainable and scalable $100-$200 trillion trade front-running hyperbitcoinization. scalable enough for most big listed companies to move to btc treasury,” he added.

Hyperbitcoinization refers to the theoretical future where Bitcoin soars to become the largest global currency, replacing fiat money due to its inflationary economics and growing distrust in the legacy financial system.

Source: Adam Back

Related: Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Bitcoin’s price outpacing fiat money inflation remains the main driver of global hyperbitcoinization, Back said, adding:

“Some people think treasury strategy is a temporary glitch. i’m saying no it’s a logical and sustainable arbitrage. but not for ever, the driver is bitcoin price going up over 4 year periods faster than interest and inflation.”

Back’s comments come nearly two months after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve from BTC forfeited in government criminal cases.

Related: Serbia’s Prince Filip says Bitcoin is being stifled, expects huge rally

Global firms continue Bitcoin accumulation

Continued Bitcoin investments from the likes of Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, may inspire more global firms to follow suit.

Strategy’s approach is proving to be lucrative, with the firm’s Bitcoin treasury generating over $5.1 billion worth of profit since the beginning of 2025, according to Strategy’s co-founder, Michael Saylor.

Source: Michael Saylor

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, also known as “Asia’s MicroStrategy,”  adopted a similar strategy, since surpassing 5,000 BTC in total holdings on April 24, Cointelegraph reported.

As Asia’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Metaplanet plans to acquire 21,000 BTC by 2026.

US financial institutions may also have more confidence in adopting Bitcoin after the US Federal Reserve withdrew its 2022 guidance discouraging banks from engaging with cryptocurrency. “Banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin,” Saylor said in response to the guidance withdrawal.

“Banks will now be supervised through normal processes, signaling a more open regulatory environment for digital asset integration,” Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

Comedian and actor TJ Miller says it only takes a little over two full days to get the average person up to speed on Bitcoin. However, when asked why more celebrities aren’t Bitcoiners, he says most people simply refuse to ever sit down and study again.

“It is really hard to get people to study after they graduate, from any level,” Miller told Natalie Brunell on the April 23 episode of Coin Stories. Miller claimed it takes “about 50 hours of study” to understand Bitcoin (BTC).

Hollywood rewards those who “do not think differently”

“So to say to somebody it is going to take 50 hours for you to understand this, they are like, ah, I don’t want to,” he said. “They can’t even watch a Netflix series; they can’t even watch White Lotus because it takes seven hours,” he said.

Comedian and actor TJ Miller spoke to Bitcoiner Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Natalie Brunell

Miller said it takes “such a paradigm shift” to embrace Bitcoin, not just in money or the internet, but in life — and that’s also why you don’t see more Hollywood celebrities becoming Bitcoin maxis:

“Hollywood rewards people that do not think differently.”

During a Bitcoin lunch hosted by crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Miller introduced himself that, to his knowledge, he is “the only celebrity that is a Bitcoiner.”

“I can’t really think of anyone else,” Miller said.

While there aren’t many celebrities known to be publicly active in the Bitcoin community, many have launched their own memecoins in recent years, including Iggy Azalea, Caitlyn Jenner, and Hailey Welch aka “Hawk Tuah.”

However, Miller said he has been trying to educate people on Bitcoin for quite some time. He said when Bitcoin was trading between $8,000 and $12,000, he was telling friends to “just put $1,000 into Bitcoin.”

Miller is confident that, at some point in the future, there will be a Hollywood movie about the Bitcoin revolution.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs on $3B ‘bender,’ log first full week of inflows in 5 weeks

“But it’ll be interesting because it didn’t happen all at once,” he said. “It didn’t happen in three years, and it hasn’t happened in ten years, so it will be interesting to see how they can connect the dots,” he added.

Cointelegraph’s Gareth Jenkinson recently sat down with TJ Miller, where it became evident that his enthusiasm for Bitcoin isn’t just surface-level. He wants to use his platform to educate and inspire others to take it seriously.

“You can tell that I’m passionate about it. And so that’s what I’d like to do is sort of be able… to be somebody that helps bring cultural awareness, spread awareness and just a trusting name and face in the Bitcoin community that hopefully will bring more people to it,” Miller said.

Magazine:  Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest, April 20 – 26

Key takeaways:

Data suggests that Bitcoin currently trades at a 40% discount.

Over 36,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from Coinbase and Binance on April 25.

Bitcoin’s fractal pattern from Q4 2024 could propel prices above $100,000 in April.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.

In a recent post on X, Edwards highlighted that since the April 2024 halving, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s energy value—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—stands at $130,000.

Bitcoin’s intrinsic value based on energy consumption, and market price. Source: X.com

Recent data from CryptoQuant indicated that over 8,756 BTC ($830 million) were withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24. Negative netflows from Coinbase could point toward institutional buying, or ETF-related purchases reflecting underlying demand.

Bitcoin exchange netflows on Coinbase. Source: CryptoQuant

This development lines up with the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows witnessed this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that institutions went on a $3 billion ‘Bitcoin bender’ over the past few days.

Binance also witnessed exchange outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted that “this is the third largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history.” Although large outflows and positive price action suggest bullish tailwinds, Wedson said they do not automatically mean a continued rally. The analyst said,

“In 2021, massive outflows didn’t prevent the dump triggered by China’s crypto ban (April–May). On the other hand, continuous outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, signaled a bottom and recovery.”

Related: Bitcoin ETFs on $3B ‘bender,’ log first full week of inflows in 5 weeks

Can this Bitcoin fractal push BTC above $100K in April?

Bitcoin’s weekly performance marks its highest return in 2025 and its most significant uptick since November 2024. Besides similar returns, the BTC price also reflects identical price action.

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the 1-day chart, Bitcoin is consolidating at a higher range after its breakout, mirroring its behavior from Q4, 2024. (circled). After a 13% rise between Nov. 5-9, BTC posted another 15% increase during Nov. 10-11. The breakout took place during the weekend as well.

Similarly, BTC prices have risen 11% between April 21-25. With the relative strength index (RSI) also exhibiting similar buying pressure, a 7-10% jump over the next few days could take BTC above $100,000.

While fractal patterns may repeat, they aren’t perfectly reliable. Unlike Q4, when Bitcoin entered price discovery and rallied without resistance, the current overhead resistance level at $96,100 could impede a breakout.

Related: Bitcoin spikes to 7-week highs as analyst doubts chances of $100K rebound

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key takeaways:

Based on power curve trends, Bitcoin may hit $200,000 in Q4 2025.

Bitcoin follows gold’s price trend with a 100-150 day lag.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has rallied 11% this week, its best weekly return in 2025 and its highest seven-day growth since early November 2024. Bitcoin also reached $95,000 on April 25 for the first time since Feb. 24. 

Bitcoin 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

21st Capital co-founder Sina mentioned that Bitcoin reclaimed the power-law price. The power law’s predictive accuracy stems from Bitcoin’s network growth following Metcalfe’s Law, where value scales with the square of users. 

Based on Sina’s Bitcoin Quantile Model, reclaiming the power-law price keeps BTC on track to hit a price target of $130,000 and $163,000 before the end of 2025. 

Bitcoin Quantile Model by Sina. Source: X.com

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin is currently in the “Transition” range, where BTC accumulation occurs. Once it breaks into the “Acceleration” zone, the crypto asset enters the rally’s 33% to 66% range, progressively targeting $106,000, $130,000, and $163,000 over the next few months.

However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 predicted BTC’s price target could be as high as $200,000 in 2025. The prediction is based on “Bitcoin power curve time contours,” which overlay Bitcoin’s price movements across four-year cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025). The chart suggests a strong performance in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with the analyst noting that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact. The analyst said,

“Looking at two-year segments centered today, 4, 8, and 12 years ago. Price scaling performed using the power curve trendline. Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher.”Bitcoin Power Curve Time Contours chart. Source: X.com

Related: 5 Bitcoin charts predicting BTC price rally toward $100K by May

Gold-Bitcoin lag may repeat Q4 rally

Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin and gold have posted new highs in the market, with each asset outperforming the other during specific periods. 

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin and gold achieved new highs between March and August 2024. However, in Q3 2024, gold spearheaded the rally, surpassing Bitcoin’s performance. By Q4, Bitcoin regained momentum, outpacing the precious metal and maintaining its lead until March 2025, when gold again took the lead. 

Bitcoin gold price performance chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold is still leading BTC but has dropped 6% since hitting new highs, while Bitcoin has gained 11%. Cointelegraph reported that BTC tends to follow gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days. Based on that narrative, it is possible that Bitcoin could lead gold in the coming weeks.Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to a new three-year low on April 21, which further fueled the likelihood of a rally for risk assets. Cointelegraph reported that multi-year DXY lows have been historically bullish for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst ‘Venture Founder’ also pointed out,

“Traditionally, DXY going down is very bullish for $BTC, we now have a massive bearish divergence for DXY, which may suggest it goes to 90. The last 2 times this happened triggered a Bitcoin parabolic bull run in the final phase of the bull market (lasting 12 months).”

Related: Bitcoin spikes to 7-week highs as analyst doubts chances of $100K rebound

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key takeaways:

Based on power curve trends, Bitcoin may hit $200,000 in Q4 2025.

Bitcoin follows gold’s price trend with a 100-150 day lag.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has rallied 11% this week, its best weekly return in 2025 and its highest seven-day growth since early November 2024. Bitcoin also reached $95,000 on April 25 for the first time since Feb. 24. 

Bitcoin 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

21st Capital co-founder Sina mentioned that Bitcoin reclaimed the power-law price. The power law’s predictive accuracy stems from Bitcoin’s network growth following Metcalfe’s Law, where value scales with the square of users. 

Based on Sina’s Bitcoin Quantile Model, reclaiming the power-law price keeps BTC on track to hit a price target of $130,000 and $163,000 before the end of 2025. 

Bitcoin Quantile Model by Sina. Source: X.com

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin is currently in the “Transition” range, where BTC accumulation occurs. Once it breaks into the “Acceleration” zone, the crypto asset enters the rally’s 33% to 66% range, progressively targeting $106,000, $130,000, and $163,000 over the next few months.

However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 predicted BTC’s price target could be as high as $200,000 in 2025. The prediction is based on “Bitcoin power curve time contours,” which overlay Bitcoin’s price movements across four-year cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025). The chart suggests a strong performance in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with the analyst noting that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact. The analyst said,

“Looking at two-year segments centered today, 4, 8, and 12 years ago. Price scaling performed using the power curve trendline. Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher.”Bitcoin Power Curve Time Contours chart. Source: X.com

Related: 5 Bitcoin charts predicting BTC price rally toward $100K by May

Gold-Bitcoin lag may repeat Q4 rally

Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin and gold have posted new highs in the market, with each asset outperforming the other during specific periods. 

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin and gold achieved new highs between March and August 2024. However, in Q3 2024, gold spearheaded the rally, surpassing Bitcoin’s performance. By Q4, Bitcoin regained momentum, outpacing the precious metal and maintaining its lead until March 2025, when gold again took the lead. 

Bitcoin gold price performance chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold is still leading BTC but has dropped 6% since hitting new highs, while Bitcoin has gained 11%. Cointelegraph reported that BTC tends to follow gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days. Based on that narrative, it is possible that Bitcoin could lead gold in the coming weeks.Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to a new three-year low on April 21, which further fueled the likelihood of a rally for risk assets. Cointelegraph reported that multi-year DXY lows have been historically bullish for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst ‘Venture Founder’ also pointed out,

“Traditionally, DXY going down is very bullish for $BTC, we now have a massive bearish divergence for DXY, which may suggest it goes to 90. The last 2 times this happened triggered a Bitcoin parabolic bull run in the final phase of the bull market (lasting 12 months).”

Related: Bitcoin spikes to 7-week highs as analyst doubts chances of $100K rebound

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.