Gold-backed cryptocurrencies have spiked in value amid the global trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariffs.

Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG) reached all-time highs on April 22, with Tether Gold touching $3,529 and Paxos Gold recording a peak of $3,520, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Two other gold-backed cryptocurrencies — Quorium (QGOLD) and Kinesis Gold (KAU) — have seen rises of 8.5% and 7.6%, respectively, in the past 30 days. All four tokens are up 40% or more in the past 12 months, CoinGecko data shows.

Related: Tether clocks $13B in 2024 profits, US bond holdings hit all-time highs

According to a report by Tether, the increased demand for XAUT is due to macroeconomic factors, such as escalating global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and a rising demand for inflation-resistant assets.

Since US President Trump’s renewed trade war, gold has increased significantly in value. On April 2, Trump’s “Liberation Day,” when the tariffs were announced, the price of one ounce of gold was $3,115. At the time of this writing, on April 28, the ounce price is at $3,335, representing a 7% jump in less than 30 days.

Gold price in USD over one month. Source: GoldPrice.org

Gold, often seen as a hedge against inflation, usually attracts investors during times of economic uncertainty. In similar lines, Bitcoin (BTC), often referred to as “digital gold,” has soared 14% during the same period.

Growing RWA market

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization — products that bring assets like precious metals, bonds, and real estate onto the blockchain — is a growing market. According to RWA.xyz, the tokenized RWA market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) stands at $21.6 billion, up 8.6% over the past 30 days.

Tether Gold and Paxos Gold are examples of RWA tokenization. Each coin in both products is reportedly backed by one troy ounce of actual gold. Tether is said to store its gold reserves in Switzerland, while Paxos keeps its gold in London. Tokenized gold has been a strong crypto use case in 2025, reaching a two-year high in trading volume on April 10.

Tokenizing gold has a few advantages over more common investment instruments that provide exposure to gold. For instance, settlements through these funds are instant, enabling quick trading. In addition, some tokenized gold tokens can be used to purchase goods and services, while traditional instruments can usually be redeemed only for fiat currency.

Related: Tether launches gold-backed, US dollar stablecoin Alloy

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin’s year-over-year return and realized price metric signal strong long-term support from holders and suggest that BTC is currently undervalued.

Standard Chartered estimates a Bitcoin price target in the $110,000–$120,000 zone by Q2 2025.

Positive funding rates point to a potential long squeeze to $90,500.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly close near $94,000 delivered an impressive year-over-year total return of 53.61%. Since the last halving in 2024, the market has shifted from the early 2024 euphoric phase to a “mature bull trend” based on onchain growth, rather than speculative frenzy. 

Bitcoin fundamentals triumph over fear and speculation

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the year-on-year (YoY) realized price, a measure of the average price at which BTC was last moved, has surged 61.82%, outperforming the YoY market value to realized value’s (MVRV) decline of 8.98%. This indicates long-term holders are raising the base price faster than speculative price increases, a healthy signal for the cycle. 

The negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value compared to a year ago, a pattern that precedes significant rallies. This compression of value leaves room for further upside, with analysts eyeing new highs above $110,000 if demand accelerates.

Bitcoin valuation and price comparison chart. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s realized price by cohort shows a cooling speculative premium, as one-month holders’ cost basis is 5% below the six-month cohort. The current market resembles past accumulation phases, leaving only five to six weeks until the average 180-day point when momentum often accelerates.

Bitcoin realized price of different cohorts. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

This bullish timeline parallels Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick’s prediction that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic reallocation from US assets. Kendrick noted that a high US Treasury term premium, correlating with BTC’s price, and time-of-day trading patterns indicate US investors are seeking non-US assets since President Donald Trump’s trade war began on April 2.

Bitcoin price movement between time zones. Source: X.com

Related: Bitcoin could hit $210K in 2025, says Presto research head

Bitcoin futures market hints at “long squeeze” below $91,000

Bitcoin’s funding rate has turned positive, signaling a dominance of long positions as traders bet on price rises above $90,000. Between April 24 and April 25, Bitcoin’s funding rate briefly turned negative, sparking discussions of a potential long squeeze that could push prices toward $97,000. However, the market dynamics shifted with the funding rate flipping positive, which could lead to a long squeeze. 

Bitcoin funding rate. Source: CryptoQuant

A long squeeze is a market event where a sudden price drop forces over-leveraged long traders to sell, amplifying the decline through mass liquidations.

Bitcoin prices have dropped 1.58% after the New York market session opened on April 28, and BTC might drop as low as $90,500 over the next few days.

As illustrated in the chart, bullish momentum is beginning to fade, and BTC could re-test the fair-value gap (FVG) between $90,500 and 88,750 on the 4-hour chart.

The price also formed a bearish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) after the price failed to hold a position above $95,000.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key points:

Bitcoin continues to face resistance at $95,000, but the possibility of an upside breakout remains high.

Solid spot Bitcoin ETF inflows do not always signal a short-term top.

Select altcoins are showing early signs of a short-term trend change.

Bitcoin (BTC) pierced the $95,000 resistance on April 28, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears have not given up and are trying to defend the level. A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not ceded much ground to the bears. That improves the prospects of a move toward $100,000.

Another positive is that institutional demand seems to be back, as seen from the solid $3.06 billion in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week. Although some instances of high spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have led to short-term price tops, that has not always been the case. Hence, the high Bitcoin ETF inflows alone cannot be considered a reason to turn negative.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero said in a post on X that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ignore the macro data signaling a rapid slowdown ahead. He expects increasing market liquidity to catapult Bitcoin to $180,000 before the summer of 2026.

What are the essential levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) made a strong comeback last week and rose above the 20-day exponential moving average (5,415).

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The index could reach the 50-day simple moving average (5,623), which is likely to act as a minor hurdle. If buyers overcome it, the recovery could extend to 5,800. Sellers are expected to mount a strong defense at the 5,800 level. 

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to make a comeback, they will have to swiftly pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the index could descend to 5,300 and then to 5,119.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) plunged below the 99 level on April 21, but the bears could not maintain the lower levels. 

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

However, a minor positive in favor of the bears is that they have not allowed the price to rise above the 100.27 overhead resistance. That suggests demand dries up at higher levels. The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative zone indicate that the bears have an edge. If the price skids below 99, the index may retest the 97.92 level.

The bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA (100.76) to indicate that the selling pressure is reducing. The index may then surge toward the 50-day SMA (103.43).

Bitcoin price prediction

Bitcoin continues to face stiff resistance at $95,000, but the tight consolidation near the crucial level increases the likelihood of a break above it.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($89,093) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate that the bulls are in control. A close above $95,000 could open the gates for a rally to $100,000. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend the $100,000 level, but on the way down, buyers will try to arrest the decline at $95,000.

This optimistic view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and plunges below the 20-day EMA. That could sink the BTC/USDT pair to the 50-day SMA ($85,085).

Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) closed above the 50-day SMA ($1,792) on April 26, but the bulls could not maintain the momentum.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($1,719) is the vital support to watch out for on the downside. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA with strength, the bulls will try to push the ETH/USDT pair toward the breakdown level of $2,111. Sellers are expected to defend the $2,111 level with all their might because a break above it may catapult the pair to $2,550. 

On the downside, a break and close below the 20-day EMA suggests that the bears remain in control. The ETH/USDT pair may then descend to $1,537.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) turned up from the 20-day EMA ($2.15) on April 27, signaling a positive sentiment.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair could reach the resistance line, which is a crucial level to watch out for. A break and close above the resistance line indicates a potential trend change. The pair could then rally to $3.

On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply from the resistance line and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level. That could keep the pair stuck between the resistance line and $2 for a few more days.

BNB price prediction

Buyers have managed to keep BNB (BNB) above the moving averages but are struggling to start a strong rebound.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA ($597) and the RSI just above the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. Buyers will have to push the price above $620 to gain the upper hand. That could open the doors for a rally to $644 and subsequently to $680.

Alternatively, a break and close below the moving averages will strengthen the bears. The BNB/USDT pair may drop to $576 and then to $566, where the buyers are expected to step in.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) is facing resistance in the $148 to $153 zone, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($139) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. A break and close above $153 clears the path for a rally to $180.

Sellers will have to pull the price below the 20-day EMA to weaken the bullish momentum. The SOL/USDT pair may then slump to the 50-day SMA ($130), suggesting a range formation in the near term.

Related: Bitcoin could hit $210K in 2025, says Presto research head

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has dropped to the moving averages, signaling that the range-bound action may continue for a while.  

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price rebounds off the moving averages with strength, the bulls will attempt to kick the DOGE/USDT pair above the $0.21 resistance. If they can pull it off, the pair will complete a double-bottom pattern, which has a target objective of $0.28.

Instead, if the price turns down from $0.21, it suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the range. The bears will gain the upper hand if they sink the price below the $0.14 support.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) has remained above the moving averages, indicating that the bulls are buying the dips.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The moving averages are about to complete a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a slight advantage for the bulls. There is minor resistance at $0.75, but if the level is crossed, the ADA/USDT pair could surge to $0.83. 

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the moving averages. That suggests the bears remain sellers on rallies. The pair could then drop to $0.58, which is likely to act as support.

Sui price prediction

Sui (SUI) has been trading just below the $3.90 resistance, indicating that the bulls have kept up the pressure.

SUI/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That increases the likelihood of a rally above the overhead resistance. If that happens, the SUI/USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend to $4.25 and later to $5.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below $3.35, it signals that the bulls are booking profits. That could pull the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3.14 and then to the 20-day EMA ($2.77), which is likely to attract buyers.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key takeaways:

US Treasury funds saw $19 billion inflows, the highest since March 2023, as the 30-year yield fell 30 basis points.

Foreign central banks cut US Treasury holdings to 23%, a 22-year low, as gold reserves hit 18%.

Bitcoin soared in 2020 from $9,000 to $60,000 amid similar trends, hinting at a similar outcome in 2025.

The global financial tides are shifting significantly, and Bitcoin (BTC) price could greatly benefit from it. Recent data indicates that US Treasury funds saw $19 billion in net inflows last week, exceeding the 2020 pandemic peak of $14 billion, with the 4-week moving average rising to $7 billion — the highest since March 2023.

US Treasurys inflow chart. Source: X.com

The 30-year US Treasury yield fell by 30 basis points from its April peak, indicating a rise in bond prices as investors are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for the safety of these bonds. This surge in demand for Treasurys as a safe-haven asset boosts market liquidity and stability while lowering US borrowing costs.

However, foreign central banks have pivoted, cutting Treasury holdings to 23% of US government debt, a 22-year low. This suggests that while private investors were possibly driving inflows, foreign central banks are stepping back, possibly due to the ongoing tariff dispute with the US. 

Foreign central banks’ gold and treasury holdings. Source: X.com

At the same time, gold’s share of global reserves has surged to 18%, a 26-year high, up 8% since 2015, with China doubling its gold reserves to 7.1% since 2023.

This global de-dollarization trend mirrors a pattern that favors Bitcoin. During the 2020 pandemic, when US Treasury inflows spiked amid COVID-19 uncertainty, Bitcoin soared from $9,000 to nearly $60,000 by early 2021, with gold’s share of global reserves rising by 14.5% in 18 months. 

The current environment, marked by a stabilizing bond market and a central bank’s gold rush, implies a similar trigger for Bitcoin’s next bullish move. In 2023, when US Treasury yields rose amid recession fears, Bitcoin gained 47% in a month while the Nasdaq dropped 8.7%. With yields easing and central banks signaling a lack of faith in the US dollar, Bitcoin’s appeal as a global store of value improves.

However, Bitcoin’s bullish narrative could falter if global markets enter a recession in 2025. This is due to investors’ decision to prioritize liquidity and traditional safe-haven assets like cash or US Treasurys during economic downturns, as noted last week, over speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin upside could stop at $100K despite $3B in ETF inflows

Google searches for “Bitcoin” at long-term lows, says Bitwise CEO

Anonymous global markets researcher Capital Flows noted that macroeconomic liquidity and positioning factors drive Bitcoin’s bullish price trajectory. The analyst highlighted BTC’s impulse strength in a directional probability skew chart, suggesting that it is poised for an upward movement.

Total macroeconomic positioning in Bitcoin. Source: X.com

This aligned with Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley’s observation that Google searches for “Bitcoin” are near long-term lows, suggesting the rally is fueled by institutions, advisers, corporations, and nations rather than retail investors. 

The lack of retail-driven search interest contrasts with historical trends where Bitcoin search volume strongly correlated with its price in the previous cycle (r=91%, per SEMrush data), indicating a shift in market dynamics where institutional adoption is fueling demand.

Related: Bitcoin ‘power law’ model forecasts $200K BTC price in 2025

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key takeaways:

US Treasury funds saw $19 billion inflows, the highest since March 2023, as the 30-year yield fell 30 basis points.

Foreign central banks cut US Treasury holdings to 23%, a 22-year low, as gold reserves hit 18%.

Bitcoin soared in 2020 from $9,000 to $60,000 amid similar trends, hinting at a similar outcome in 2025.

The global financial tides are shifting significantly, and Bitcoin (BTC) price could greatly benefit from it. Recent data indicates that US Treasury funds saw $19 billion in net inflows last week, exceeding the 2020 pandemic peak of $14 billion, with the 4-week moving average rising to $7 billion—the highest since March 2023.

US Treasurys inflow chart. Source: X.com

The 30-year US Treasury yield fell by 30 basis points from its April peak, indicating a rise in bond prices as investors are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for the safety of these bonds. This surge in demand for Treasurys as a safe-haven asset boosts market liquidity and stability while lowering US borrowing costs.

However, foreign central banks have pivoted, cutting Treasury holdings to 23% of US government debt, a 22-year low. This suggests that while private investors were possibly driving inflows, foreign central banks are stepping back, possibly due to the ongoing tariff dispute with the US. 

Foreign central banks’ gold and treasury holdings. Source: X.com

At the same time, gold’s share of global reserves has surged to 18%, a 26-year high, up 8% since 2015, with China doubling its gold reserves to 7.1% since 2023.

This global de-dollarization trend mirrors a pattern that favors Bitcoin. During the 2020 pandemic, when US Treasury inflows spiked amid COVID-19 uncertainty, Bitcoin soared from $9,000 to nearly $60,000 by early 2021, with gold’s share of global reserves rising by 14.5% in 18 months. 

The current environment, marked by a stabilizing bond market and a central bank’s gold rush, implies a similar trigger for Bitcoin’s next bullish move. In 2023, when US Treasury yields rose amid recession fears, Bitcoin gained 47% in a month while the Nasdaq dropped 8.7%. With yields easing and central banks signaling a lack of faith in the US dollar, Bitcoin’s appeal as a global store of value improves.

However, Bitcoin’s bullish narrative could falter if global markets enter a recession in 2025. This is due to investors’ decision to prioritize liquidity and traditional safe-haven assets like cash or US Treasurys during economic downturns, as noted last week, over speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin upside could stop at $100K despite $3B in ETF inflows

Google searches for “Bitcoin” at long-term lows, says Bitwise CEO

Anonymous global markets researcher Capital Flows noted that macroeconomic liquidity and positioning factors drive Bitcoin’s bullish price trajectory. The analyst highlighted BTC’s impulse strength in a directional probability skew chart, suggesting that it is poised for an upward movement.

Total macroeconomic positioning in Bitcoin. Source: X.com

This aligned with Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley’s observation that Google searches for “Bitcoin” are near long-term lows, suggesting the rally is fueled by institutions, advisers, corporations, and nations rather than retail investors. 

The lack of retail-driven search interest contrasts with historical trends where Bitcoin search volume strongly correlated with its price in the previous cycle (r=91%, per SEMrush data), indicating a shift in market dynamics where institutional adoption is fueling demand.

Related: Bitcoin ‘power law’ model forecasts $200K BTC price in 2025

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The hacker behind the $5.8 million recent Loopscale exploit is in talks to return the stolen funds in exchange for a bounty, the Solana-based protocol said. 

The exploiter pilfered approximately 5.7 million USDC (USDC) and 1,200 Solana (SOL) tokens from two of Loopscale’s yield vaults on April 26, prompting the decentralized finance protocol to temporarily pause its lending markets. 

The following day, the hacker sent a message on the Etherscan blockchain scanner “indicat[ing] a willingness to return the exploited funds in exchange for a bounty,” Loopscale said in an April 27 X post. 

“We are agreeable to collaborating with you to reach a white hat agreement. However, we would like to negotiate the bounty percentage; our expectation is 20%,” the hacker said. “To demonstrate our commitment to a cooperative approach, we will immediately return the 5,000 wSOL funds following the transmission of this message,” they added.

Negotiations are ongoing for the remaining funds, according to the public messaging exchange on Etherscan. 

Messages exchanged with the Loopscale hacker. Source: Etherscan

Related: Solana’s Loopscale pauses lending after $5.8M hack

The exploit

Web3 protocols frequently offer bounties to hackers in exchange for returning lost funds. However, only a small portion of the more than $1.6 billion in crypto stolen during the first quarter of 2025 has been successfully recovered. 

The Loopscale exploit only impacted the protocol’s USDC and SOL vaults, with losses representing around 12% of its total value locked (TVL),  Loopscale co-founder Mary Gooneratne said in an April 26 X post. 

Source: Loopscale

In the aftermath of the attack, Loopscale temporarily halted lending but has since “re-enabled loan repayments, top-ups, and loop closing,” it said in an X post. 

“All other app functions (including Vault withdrawals) are still temporarily restricted while we investigate and ensure mitigation of this exploit,” Loopscale said.

Launched on April 10, Loopscale is a DeFi lending protocol that aims to improve capital efficiency by directly matching lenders and borrowers.

Additionally, Loopscale facilitates specialized lending markets, such as “structured credit, receivables financing, and undercollateralized lending,” it said in an April announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest, April 20 – 26

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin price dropped alongside falling Treasury yields, signaling investors’ flight to safer assets.

Strategy’s $4.28B Bitcoin purchases and stock market strength have supported BTC above $90,000.

A true breakout toward $100,000 will require Bitcoin to decouple from equities and stronger liquidity signals.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp $2,000 correction to $93,500 on April 28. This price movement closely tracked the decline in US Treasury yields, suggesting that traders were seeking the relative safety of more secure assets.

While Bitcoin traders are moderately satisfied with the 6% gains achieved over the past week, there is ongoing uncertainty as to why BTC has been unable to maintain levels above $95,000.

US 5-year Treasury yield  (left) vs Bitcoin/USD, 15 min. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

The abrupt correction in Bitcoin’s price after reaching $95,500 mirrored the intraday performance of US Treasury yields. A decrease in yields indicates that investors are willing to accept lower returns for holding bonds, which signals increased demand for safer investments. This pattern suggests a sudden decline in risk appetite across major financial markets.

China’s tariff cuts fueled optimism, but US trade concerns reversed sentiment

Investors’ optimism increased over the weekend as news that China had quietly reduced tariffs to zero on selected US semiconductor and circuit board imports was reported by Newsweek on April 25. Notably, the US Russell 2000 small-cap index maintained positive momentum on April 28, remaining near its highest level in over three weeks. 

However, this sentiment reversed following an interview with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on CNBC, in which he placed the responsibility for a trade agreement on China.

US Russell 2000 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD, 1h. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Although recession risks have increased amid escalating trade tensions, many US companies are currently reporting strong first-quarter results. According to a FactSet report, 73% of these companies have posted earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Bitcoin’s repeated failure to sustain levels above $95,000 appears to be linked to broader macroeconomic concerns. Additionally, the cryptocurrency’s inability to decouple from stock market trends indicates that investors are not yet convinced of Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a hedge during potential economic downturns.

There are also concerns that much of the recent bullish momentum, which has kept Bitcoin’s price above $90,000, has been driven by $4.28 billion in BTC acquisitions by Strategy since mid-March. Furthermore, 97% of the previously approved common share issuance has already been utilized, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Michael Saylor’s accumulation strategy.

Bitcoin struggles as strong stock earnings contrast with macroeconomic concerns

While the stock market is benefiting from a robust earnings season, Bitcoin’s price is being weighed down by perceptions of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.

US existing home sales in March recorded their largest monthly decline in over two years, falling 5.9% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, China has outlined plans to support employment and assist exporters after factories reduced production due to weak consumer demand, according to CNBC.

Related: Crypto ETPs hit 3rd-largest inflows on record at $3.4B — CoinShares

Given the current global economic uncertainty, a sustained rally in BTC above $100,000 will require more than a single week of strong inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly as this coincides with significant buying activity from Strategy.

For investors to have confidence in a new Bitcoin all-time high in 2025, the cryptocurrency must demonstrate a clearer divergence from US stock market trends and provide further evidence that central banks will inject liquidity to prevent a crisis. 

At present, traders are focused on the trajectory of US interest rates and the possibility of a reversal in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which could end a period of monetary tightening that has lasted for more than two years.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin price dropped alongside falling Treasury yields, signaling investors’ flight to safer assets.

Strategy’s $4.28B Bitcoin purchases and stock market strength have supported BTC above $90,000.

A true breakout toward $100,000 will require Bitcoin to decouple from equities and stronger liquidity signals.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp $2,000 correction to $93,500 on April 28. This price movement closely tracked the decline in US Treasury yields, suggesting that traders were seeking the relative safety of more secure assets.

While Bitcoin traders are moderately satisfied with the 6% gains achieved over the past week, there is ongoing uncertainty as to why BTC has been unable to maintain levels above $95,000.

US 5-year Treasury yield  (left) vs Bitcoin/USD, 15 min. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

The abrupt correction in Bitcoin’s price after reaching $95,500 mirrored the intraday performance of US Treasury yields. A decrease in yields indicates that investors are willing to accept lower returns for holding bonds, which signals increased demand for safer investments. This pattern suggests a sudden decline in risk appetite across major financial markets.

China’s tariff cuts fueled optimism, but US trade concerns reversed sentiment

Investors’ optimism increased over the weekend as news that China had quietly reduced tariffs to zero on selected US semiconductor and circuit board imports was reported by Newsweek on April 25. Notably, the US Russell 2000 small-cap index maintained positive momentum on April 28, remaining near its highest level in over three weeks. 

However, this sentiment reversed following an interview with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on CNBC, in which he placed the responsibility for a trade agreement on China.

US Russell 2000 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD, 1h. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Although recession risks have increased amid escalating trade tensions, many US companies are currently reporting strong first-quarter results. According to a FactSet report, 73% of these companies have posted earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Bitcoin’s repeated failure to sustain levels above $95,000 appears to be linked to broader macroeconomic concerns. Additionally, the cryptocurrency’s inability to decouple from stock market trends indicates that investors are not yet convinced of Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a hedge during potential economic downturns.

There are also concerns that much of the recent bullish momentum, which has kept Bitcoin’s price above $90,000, has been driven by $4.28 billion in BTC acquisitions by Strategy since mid-March. Furthermore, 97% of the previously approved common share issuance has already been utilized, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Michael Saylor’s accumulation strategy.

Bitcoin struggles as strong stock earnings contrast with macroeconomic concerns

While the stock market is benefiting from a robust earnings season, Bitcoin’s price is being weighed down by perceptions of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.

US existing home sales in March recorded their largest monthly decline in over two years, falling 5.9% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, China has outlined plans to support employment and assist exporters after factories reduced production due to weak consumer demand, according to CNBC.

Related: Crypto ETPs hit 3rd-largest inflows on record at $3.4B — CoinShares

Given the current global economic uncertainty, a sustained rally in BTC above $100,000 will require more than a single week of strong inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly as this coincides with significant buying activity from Strategy.

For investors to have confidence in a new Bitcoin all-time high in 2025, the cryptocurrency must demonstrate a clearer divergence from US stock market trends and provide further evidence that central banks will inject liquidity to prevent a crisis. 

At present, traders are focused on the trajectory of US interest rates and the possibility of a reversal in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which could end a period of monetary tightening that has lasted for more than two years.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

Polymarket chances favor the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney over the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre to be the next Canadian Prime Minister. Source: Polymarket

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.

The election is not really focused on crypto

In contrast to the 2024 US election, in which Trump often made statements suggesting he would enact policies favorable to the crypto industry, neither Carney nor Poilievre seemed to have made digital assets central to their campaigns.

Similar to Trump, Poilievre made a social media post in 2022 suggesting he would make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world” if elected leader of his party. This statement was made months before Trump began claiming he would make the US the “crypto capital of the world.” However, the Conservative candidate has largely stayed silent on digital assets in 2022 following the market downturn spurred by the collapses of Terra and FTX.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk — also a Trump adviser — and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong made social media posts in January suggesting support for Poilievre. Both men are Canadian citizens and likely eligible to vote in the election. 

Related: Why Pierre Poilievre may not be Canada’s crypto savior

In contrast, Carney was critical of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies while serving as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, calling them “poor short-term stores of value.” After leaving the bank, he gave a speech with the Bank for International Settlements supporting a central bank currency (CBDC).

Despite the prime minister’s Liberal Party credentials and its association with Trudeau’s efforts to crack down on truckers blocking streets and disrupting travel in a 2022 protest, polls show Carney is favored to defeat Poilievre. Polls suggested the prime minister’s opposition to Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex Canada using “economic force” played a role in boosting Carney’s chances.

The results of the snap Canadian election are expected to be announced by April 30.

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Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

Polymarket chances favor the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney over the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre to be the next Canadian Prime Minister. Source: Polymarket

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.