Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out—a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

A recent filing with Maine’s attorney general sheds new light on Coinbase’s data breach, claiming that nearly 70,000 users were impacted and that the incident went unnoticed for nearly six months.

According to the filing submitted by legal firm Latham and Watkins LLP, 69,461 Coinbase users were compromised by the breach, 217 of whom are residents of the US state of Maine.

The document also indicates the breach occurred on Dec. 26, 2024, but was only discovered on May 11, 2025 — nearly six months following the cybersecurity incident.

Coinbase now faces a flurry of lawsuits from affected clients, who argue that the exchange failed to notify victims of the security breach in a timely manner. The attack caused $400 million in losses through social engineering scams and remediation costs, Coinbase has said.

Cointelegraph contacted Coinbase for comment, but had not received a response at time of publication.

Coinbase data breach incident details. Source: Maine Attorney General

The data breach sparked debate about the ethics of Know Your Customer (KYC) data collection, which some argue adds risks to crypto holders. The incident also reflects the growing number of cybersecurity incidents plaguing the industry.

Related: Coinbase faces lawsuit over alleged breaches of Illinois biometric privacy law

The Coinbase data breach sends shockwaves through the crypto world

Coinbase became the target of a ransom attempt after scammers convinced several Coinbase customer service representatives to hand over limited user information, including client names, contact information, and physical addresses.

The scammers then attempted to extort the company into paying a ransom of $20 million in exchange for not leaking the data. However, Coinbase refused to negotiate with the threat actors.

The crypto exchange fired the contractors who collaborated with the scammers to hand over the user data and also promised remediation or reimbursements for any impacted clients.

Despite the remediation efforts, shares of Coinbase slid by 7% following news of the data breach and the subsequent extortion attempt.

Later reports revealed that Roelof Botha, a partner at venture capital firm Sequoia Capital, was also a victim of the data leak, suggesting that the incident also impacted other individuals or entities tied to the VC firm.

The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) opened a probe into the leak; it hadn’t published updates on the incident or the extortion attempt as of May 21.

Industry executives, investors, and legal experts have warned that such data leaks threaten the physical safety of crypto investors by making them the targets of extortion attempts, kidnapping, and armed robbery.

Magazine: Pink Drainer creator defends his wallet-draining crypto scam kit

Key points:

Bitcoin made a new all-time high, but the bulls will have to sustain the higher levels for the momentum to pick up.

Several altcoins have bounced off their respective support levels, signaling a positive sentiment.

Analysts expect Bitcoin to maintain its positive momentum and surge above $200,000 by the end of the year.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to a new all-time high on May 21 on easing macroeconomic fears and continued inflows into the US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Analysts expect the momentum to continue and Bitcoin to surge to $200,000 by the end of the year.

There are some murmurs among analysts about a bearish divergence, leading to a double-top pattern. However, private wealth manager Swissblock Technologies said in a post on X that its Bitcoin Fundamental Index is not showing any bearish divergence, and the onchain strength remains intact.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin is on the verge of forming a “golden cross” on the daily chart, which generally is followed by sharp rallies, barring a few instances when the pattern failed. Bitcoin’s strength is expected to improve sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector, pulling several altcoins higher.

What are the possible target levels for Bitcoin? Could altcoins break above their respective overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

Bitcoin rose above the $109,588 overhead resistance, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels, as seen from the long wick on the candlestick.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the overbought zone indicate that the bulls are in control. If the price closes above $109,588, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and skyrocket toward $130,000.

The 20-day exponential moving average ($101,958) is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. A break below the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the bulls are booking profits in a hurry. That increases the risk of a break below the psychological support of $100,000. 

Ether price prediction

Buyers are trying to sustain Ether (ETH) above the $2,550 level but are facing significant resistance from the bears.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2,334) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate that buyers are in control. The ETH/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum on a break above $2,739. That clears the path for a rally to $3,000.

Contrary to this assumption, a break and close below the 20-day EMA signals that the bears are back in the game. The pair could tumble to $2,111, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) has been witnessing a tough battle between the buyers and sellers at the 20-day EMA ($2.35).

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price skids below the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair may stay inside the $2 to $2.65 range for a while. 

Instead, if the price turns up sharply from the 20-day EMA and breaks above $2.65, the advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls. The pair could rally to $3 and, after that, to $3.40, where the sellers are expected to mount a strong defense.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) bulls have held the 20-day EMA ($639) support during the pullback, indicating buying on dips. 

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will try to push the price above $693 but are expected to face solid selling by the bears. However, if buyers bulldoze their way through, the BNB/USDT pair could skyrocket to the overhead resistance at $745.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($609). 

Solana price prediction

Sellers failed to pull Solana (SOL) below the 20-day EMA ($164), indicating demand at lower levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will try to propel the price above the $185 overhead resistance. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair could accelerate toward the target objective of $210 and then $220.

If sellers want to prevent the upside, they will have to quickly tug the price below the 20-day EMA. The pair could slide to $153 and later to the 50-day SMA ($145). That suggests a possible range-bound action between $120 and $180.

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has bounced off the breakout level of $0.21, indicating that buyers are active at lower levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.21) is trending up, and the RSI is in the positive zone, signaling that buyers are in command. The DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the $0.26 level, which could attract sellers. If the price turns down sharply from the overhead resistance, the pair could form a narrow range between $0.26 and $0.21 for some time.

Contrarily, a break and close above $0.26 signals the start of the next leg of the up move. The pair could then surge to $0.35.

Cardano price prediction

The bulls have kept Cardano (ADA) above the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern during the pullback. 

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA ($0.74) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate the bulls have an edge. Buyers will have to thrust the price above $0.86 to signal the resumption of the uptrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then skyrocket to $1.01.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($0.69). That suggests the bulls are losing their grip, increasing the risk of a fall to $0.60.

Related: Bitcoin enters ‘acceleration phase’ resembling BTC price gains seen after Trump election victory

Sui price prediction

Sui’s (SUI) pullback has taken support at the 20-day EMA ($3.73), indicating a positive sentiment.

SUI/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate an advantage to buyers. The SUI/USDT pair could reach the $4.25 obstacle, where the sellers are expected to step in. If buyers do not cede much ground to the bears, it increases the likelihood of a break above $4.25. The pair may then climb to $5.

The 20-day EMA is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below the 20-day EMA could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($3.04).

Chainlink price prediction

Buyers successfully defended the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern in Chainlink (LINK), indicating buying on dips.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls are trying to strengthen their position by pushing the price above the resistance line. If they manage to do that, the LINK/USDT pair could rally to $18. Sellers will try to halt the up move at $18, but the rally could extend to $19.80 if the bulls prevail.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to make a comeback, they will have to swiftly yank the price below the 50-day SMA. The pair may then remain inside the channel for a few more days.

Avalanche price prediction

Avalanche (AVAX) took support at the 50-day SMA ($20.88), signaling that the bulls are trying to form a higher low. 

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above the $23.50 resistance to gain the upper hand. The AVAX/USDT pair could then climb to $26.84, which may act as a hurdle. If buyers overcome the $26.84 barrier, the pair could ascend to $31.73 and subsequently to $36.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it suggests that the bulls have given up. The pair could then decline to $18.50.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Democratic leaning organizations and members of Congress have announced plans to protest what they describe as the sale of access to the office of the US president, in reference to Donald Trump’s memecoin dinner on May 22. The event’s attendees are said to have collectively spent over $100 million for the chance to meet with the US president.

Since Trump’s memecoin project, Official Trump (TRUMP), announced that its top 220 tokenholders would have an opportunity to apply for an exclusive dinner with the president, many leaders in the crypto industry and US lawmakers have criticized the event, saying Trump was opening his office to potential bribery and corruption.

The memecoin dinner prompted some Democratic lawmakers to withdraw support for crypto-related legislation in Congress, including the market structure and stablecoin bills.

“Trump collecting gifts from foreign governments is unconstitutional,” a spokesperson for the consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen, which is planning to protest near the memecoin dinner on May 22, told Cointelegraph. “Collecting foreign government investments through his memecoin is not much better. American foreign policy should not be for sale.”

Source: Public Citizen

Crypto industry figures such as Tron founder Justin Sun, Kronos Research chief investment officer Vincent Liu, Hyperithm co-CEO Oh Sangrok, and Synthetix founder Kain Warwick are among the tokenholders expected to attend the dinner at the Trump National Golf Club outside Washington, DC. The memecoin project said all applicants had to pass a background check and could not be from a “[Know Your Customer] watchlist country.”

Related: Democrats seek suspicious activity reports linked to Trump crypto ventures

Public Citizen, in partnership with progressive political organization Our Revolution, will hold a rally near the golf club, which Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley is expected to attend. In addition, the Arlington and Loudoun Democrats will be hosting a separate event to urge US officials to “hold [Trump] accountable,” and Democratic leadership in Congress has scheduled two press events on May 22 ahead of the dinner.

“Americans cannot and will not accept President Trump’s view that positions of power exist only to benefit the holder of that power,” Ryan Ruzic, chair of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee, told Cointelegraph. “We have a moral responsibility to speak out against corruption, whatever the result may be.”

Pushback on TRUMP memecoin affected crypto legislation

Some lawmakers initially cited the memecoin dinner and the Trump family’s involvement with the crypto platform World Liberty Financial in opposing passage of the GENIUS Act, a bill to regulate payment stablecoins. World Liberty Financial began issuing its own USD1 stablecoin in March, prompting concerns about Trump’s conflicts of interest. However, the legislation passed a key procedural vote in the Senate on May 19 with support from Democrats, setting the bill up for debate in the chamber.

“Many senators, myself included, have very real concerns about the Trump family’s use of crypto technologies to evade oversight, hide shady financial dealings, and personally profit at the expense of everyday Americans,” said Sen. Mark Warner in a statement before the May 19 vote, adding: “But we cannot allow that corruption to blind us to the broader reality: blockchain technology is here to stay.”

Senator Chris Murphy, who voted against advancing the GENIUS Act, called for bipartisan support in amending the bill to specifically bar a US president from issuing stablecoins. He also called on the White House to release a complete list of attendees to the memecoin dinner, suggesting that some or all of them would “try to get something from the president” in exchange for purchasing the tokens.

Murphy and Senator Elizabeth Warren will attend a press event with representatives for Public Citizen on May 22. California Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the US House Financial Services Committee, announced a separate press conference for the same day, with plans to introduce a bill to “block Trump’s memecoin and stop his crypto corruption, once and for all.”

As of May 21, the exact number of attendees to the dinner was unknown. A smaller group of 25 tokenholders also qualified to apply for “VIP tour” and reception — presumably at the White House — with Trump, but the complete list of those planning to attend was also unknown at the time of publication.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

The Texas House of Representatives has passed the third reading of SB 21, a bill that seeks to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state. The bill passed in a 101-42 vote and will now go to Texas Governor Greg Abbott to either sign into law or veto.

SB 21, authored by state Senator Charles Schwertner, establishes a Bitcoin (BTC) reserve that is managed by the state’s comptroller. The legislation allows the comptroller to invest in any cryptocurrency with a market cap above $500 billion over the previous 12-month period. Currently, the only cryptocurrency fitting the requirement is Bitcoin.

Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione presenting SB 21. Source: Bitcoin Laws

Before the vote, state Representative Giovanni Capriglione said to the chamber that the bill was a “pivotal moment in securing Texas’s leadership in the digital age with the passage of our strategic Bitcoin reserve. Now, we embrace a modern asset with traditional properties for future promise.” The bill passed in the Texas Senate in a 25-5 vote on March 6.

Texas’s economy is the second-largest in the United States, with a gross domestic product of $2.7 trillion in 2024, according to KVUE. If Texas were its own country, it would have the eighth-largest economy in the world.

Related: Texas lawmakers refile Bitcoin reserve bill, adding room for more crypto

State Bitcoin reserve bills see mixed results

If Abbott signs SB 21 into law, Texas will be the second US state to allow for the creation of a cryptocurrency reserve. New Hampshire became the first to do so on May 6 after Governor Kelly Ayotte signed House Bill 302 into law.

Similar bills in other states have faced resistance as of late. On May 13, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs axed two crypto reserve bills. On May 6, two Florida strategic Bitcoin reserve bills were taken off the table.

Hobbs wrote in her veto letter, “Current volatility in cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars […].”

The risky nature of cryptocurrency investing was a factor in the decision of Montana lawmakers to kill a possible digital asset reserve.

According to Bitcoin Laws, 47 strategic Bitcoin reserve bills have been introduced in 26 states. There are 13 active bills at the federal level as well.

Abbott has expressed enthusiasm for cryptocurrency before and is expected to sign the bill into law. In a social media post dated November 2024, Abbott praised Texas as “the home of crypto mining,” adding that it “should become the crypto capital.”

Abbott has reportedly accepted Bitcoin donations to campaigns since 2014.

Magazine: Danger signs for Bitcoin as retail abandons it to institutions — Sky Wee

The Texas House of Representatives has passed the third reading of SB 21, a bill that seeks to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state. The bill passed via a 101-42 vote and will now go to Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s desk for either a signature or a veto.

SB 21, authored by state Senator Schwertner, establishes a Bitcoin (BTC) reserve that is managed by the state’s comptroller. The legislation allows the comptroller to invest in any cryptocurrency with a market cap above $500 billion over the previous 12-month period. Currently, the only cryptocurrency fitting the requirements is Bitcoin.

Rep. Capriglione presenting SB 21. Source: Bitcoin Laws

Before the vote, state representative Capriglione said to the chamber that the bill was a “pivotal moment in securing Texas’s leadership in the digital age with the passage of our strategic Bitcoin reserve. Now, we embrace a modern asset with traditional properties for future promise.”

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

America’s powerful banking lobby is “panicking” over the potential of stablecoins to disrupt their traditional business model, particularly when it comes to yield-bearing stablecoins, according to Austin Campbell, a New York University professor and founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting.

In a May 21 social media post that begins with, “The Empire Lobbies Back,” Campbell claimed that the banking industry is especially alarmed by the potential for stablecoins to offer interest or rewards to holders. 

In a pointed message aimed at Democratic lawmakers, Campbell wrote that “banks want you to protect their cartel so they can keep screwing your voters.”

He went on to explain how fractional reserve banking enables banks to maximize profits while offering depositors minimal interest.

The banking lobby says that if stablecoins pay interest or any other type of monetary reward, banks will be “harmed,” Campbell added.

An excerpt of Campbell’s X post. Source: Austin Campbell

“This is naked pandering for cartel protection,” he said while urging the opposition party to avoid “screwing” its voters with supporting any type of blanket ban on stablecoin interest payments.

Campbell has long advocated for sensible stablecoin legislation in the United States, warning a Congressional subcommittee in April 2023 that failing to enact such laws would push issuers overseas.

Related: Pareto launches synthetic dollar backed by private credit

The rise of yield-bearing stablecoins

Campbell’s scathing assessment of the traditional banking industry comes amid a wave of stablecoin issuers launching yield-bearing tokens. 

As reported by Cointelegraph, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in February approved the first yield-bearing stablecoin security by Figure Markets. At the time of its launch, the new YLDS token offered a 3.85% yield. 

Figure Markets’ Form S-1 registration with the SEC for its yield-bearing stablecoin. Source: SEC

Figure Markets is by no means the only player going down the yield-bearing stablecoin route. 

In February, Tether co-founder Reeve Collins announced that his Pi Protocol will allow investors to mint the USP stablecoin in exchange for USI, an interest-paying equivalent. 

Spark Protocol’s USDS also offers holders interest payments generated through decentralized lending and tokenized Treasurys. 

Stablecoins have come a long way since October 2014, when Tether launched USDt. Source: S&P Global

“It’s unacceptable to not be receiving at least the risk-free rate for holding stablecoins,” Sam MacPherson, CEO of Spark Protocol developer Phoenix Labs, told Bloomberg.

Aside from Bitcoin (BTC), stablecoins have arguably become the most impactful use case for blockchain technology, with Coinbase Canada CEO Lucas Matheson telling Cointelegraph that global stablecoin volumes are nearly three times those of credit card giant Visa.

Related: Canada lags with stablecoin approach, but there’s room to catch up

America’s powerful banking lobby is “panicking” over the potential of stablecoins to disrupt their traditional business model, particularly when it comes to yield-bearing stablecoins, according to Austin Campbell, a New York University professor and founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting.

In a May 21 social media post that begins with, “The Empire Lobbies Back,” Campbell claimed that the banking industry is especially alarmed by the potential for stablecoins to offer interest or rewards to holders. 

In a pointed message aimed at Democratic lawmakers, Campbell wrote that “banks want you to protect their cartel so they can keep screwing your voters.”

He went on to explain how fractional reserve banking enables banks to maximize profits while offering depositors minimal interest.

The banking lobby says that if stablecoins pay interest or any other type of monetary reward, banks will be “harmed,” Campbell added.

An excerpt of Campbell’s X post. Source: Austin Campbell

“This is naked pandering for cartel protection,” he said while urging the opposition party to avoid “screwing” its voters with supporting any type of blanket ban on stablecoin interest payments.

Campbell has long advocated for sensible stablecoin legislation in the United States, warning a Congressional subcommittee in April 2023 that failing to enact such laws would push issuers overseas.

Related: Pareto launches synthetic dollar backed by private credit

The rise of yield-bearing stablecoins

Campbell’s scathing assessment of the traditional banking industry comes amid a wave of stablecoin issuers launching yield-bearing tokens. 

As reported by Cointelegraph, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in February approved the first yield-bearing stablecoin security by Figure Markets. At the time of its launch, the new YLDS token offered a 3.85% yield. 

Figure Markets’ Form S-1 registration with the SEC for its yield-bearing stablecoin. Source: SEC

Figure Markets is by no means the only player going down the yield-bearing stablecoin route. 

In February, Tether co-founder Reeve Collins announced that his Pi Protocol will allow investors to mint the USP stablecoin in exchange for USI, an interest-paying equivalent. 

Spark Protocol’s USDS also offers holders interest payments generated through decentralized lending and tokenized Treasurys. 

Stablecoins have come a long way since October 2014, when Tether launched USDt. Source: S&P Global

“It’s unacceptable to not be receiving at least the risk-free rate for holding stablecoins,” Sam MacPherson, CEO of Spark Protocol developer Phoenix Labs, told Bloomberg.

Aside from Bitcoin (BTC), stablecoins have arguably become the most impactful use case for blockchain technology, with Coinbase Canada CEO Lucas Matheson telling Cointelegraph that global stablecoin volumes are nearly three times those of credit card giant Visa.

Related: Canada lags with stablecoin approach, but there’s room to catch up

Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high after a temporary trade agreement between the United States and China eased macroeconomic fears and boosted investor confidence.

Bitcoin (BTC) set a new high of $109,400 on May 21, rising more than 26% in the past month, according to data from TradingView. This climb to a record high came nine days after the White House announced a 90-day trade agreement between the US and China on May 12, temporarily slashing import tariffs to 10%.

BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 90-day tariff suspension and the cooperative tone in negotiations removed the risk of “sudden re-escalation,” which had a significant impact on risk appetite among traditional and cryptocurrency investors, Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph.

US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were seen as the biggest macroeconomic threat to traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets in 2025.

Bitcoin briefly fell to a year-to-date low of $74,434 on April 7, five days after Trump announced his reciprocal import tariffs on April 2, sending shockwaves across global markets, with the S&P 500 losing more than $5 trillion in value, its largest drop to date.

Bitcoin started its recovery on April 9 after Trump’s Liberation Day marked the “climax of uncertainty” for market participants, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Consultancy, told Cointelegraph at the time.

Related: Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

Bitcoin entered May with “near-flawless setup”

Bitcoin kicked off May with a “near-flawless setup, catalyzed by a rare alignment of geopolitical de-escalation, improving regulatory optics and macroeconomic tailwinds,” according to Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex exchange.

“The Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks have defused one of the primary geopolitical volatility engines of the past two years,” Kooner told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Rather than triggering capital flight from Bitcoin — as often seen when risk wanes — this easing is unlocking a risk-on rotation. We’re seeing capital rotate into BTC and high-beta tech as the need for geopolitical hedging fades, but liquidity remains abundant.”

The capital rotation reflects a “maturing narrative” as “Bitcoin is no longer just a fear hedge — it’s increasingly a high-conviction risk asset in periods of macro stability,” Kooner said.

Source: Donald J. Trump

Russia and Ukraine “will immediately start negotiations towards a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War,” Trump said in a May 19 X post, summarizing his two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Related: Ukraine strategic Bitcoin reserve bill reportedly in final stages

Still, funding rates need to remain neutral and open interest stable for a “consecutive setup” that may ignite a Bitcoin rally to above $114,000 to $120,000, which may be catalyzed by any “macro or regulatory spark,” Kooner said.

Other analysts have predicted a Bitcoin rally to above $130,000 before the end of 2025, based on BTC’s close correlation with the global money supply.

BTC projection to $132,000 on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

The increasing money supply may push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of the year, as investor demand is driven by the growing fiat money debasement, predicted Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

Magazine: Arthur Hayes $1M Bitcoin tip, altcoins ‘powerful rally’ looms: Hodler’s Digest, May 11 – 17

Opinion by: Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO

The crypto community often experiences periods of heightened anxiety. Market downturns are often triggered by counterproductive sentiment-driven events rather than by fundamental issues, creating a significant disconnect between price behavior and the actual progress being made within the industry by the companies within it. What often goes unnoticed is how much real development happens during these downturns. While market movements capture most of the attention, teams are building faster and more deliberately behind the scenes than ever. The focus shifts away from price speculation and toward real execution. Growth happens during downturns. It’s a necessary phase for projects that thrive in a volatile industry. They re-focus attention on refining their technology and business, fueling the next wave of progress.

As a result, there’s a disconnect between online sentiment and conversations between blockchain industry leaders. For builders and project leaders, the atmosphere is of determination, not doom.

Regulators are coming on board

One of the most promising developments is the accelerating momentum of regulation policy. Many European companies are applying for MiCA licenses in preparation for regulatory updates. There’s also a significant policy shift under new US leadership as the SEC retreats from several high-profile crypto enforcement actions. 

The disparity between sentiment and reality serves as a reminder that price is a lagging indicator. Selloffs are triggered by uncertainty around tariff announcements and background activity such as interest rates. Material, long-term statistics speak for the virtually universal optimism among industry leaders as the number of active developers has remained stable, and the number of established developers almost doubled last year. That’s an incredible jump in only one year. 

From hype to substance

Maturation means teams thoughtfully building, governments engaging seriously with legislation, and users demanding better UX and real utility. The industry has a well-established pattern — market corrections wipe away hype and encourage focus. The last bear market gave rise to breakthroughs in DeFi, NFTs, and zero-knowledge tech. This time, it’s about real-world infrastructure, regulation-ready platforms, and next-gen scalability.

What emerges in these periods tends to be less visible but more durable. Teams that remain active are often those with clear models, sufficient runway, and a willingness to adapt. These are the periods when we learn whether the systems being built can handle real-world demands. One of the most promising frontiers lies at the intersection of AI and blockchain, the most ubiquitous being within Large Language Models. AI is, however, only as good as the data it’s trained on.

AI systems are evolving rapidly, but their foundations are skewed. They’re built primarily on data scraped from the digital-first countries that predominantly lie in the northern hemisphere, which dominates global media production and internet usage. This creates a feedback loop where Western and East Asian perspectives and widely spoken languages such as English and Mandarin are not only amplified but leave little room for necessary data from smaller populations.

A report from Web3 Technologies said 60% of tier-one media on the internet is English. Prominent among these media outlets is The New York Times, which has sued OpenAI based on copyright infringement. The publication alleges that their copyright-protected data was used to train OpenAI’s LLM model. 

Recent: The future of finance is built on Bitcoin — Ethereum was just the testnet

Knowing the full extent of the global imbalance in the data creating AI outputs is impossible. Allegations like this and the results delivered when using AI tools suggest the pressing need for a solution.

It’s even worse. When AI systems are trained on narrow, incomplete data sets, the results can exclude billions from the benefits of emerging technologies. As IBM highlights, data bias isn’t just a technical issue — it’s a human one with real-world consequences in healthcare, finance, agriculture, and beyond.

It’s become normal to use AI data every day. We receive personalized Google search results, Adobe has built AI into its industry-standard graphic and video software, and we use AI assistants like Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT to formulate the thoughts with which we represent ourselves. All of these tools are affected by an overwhelming bias toward the center of a bell curve within their data sets, unable to access or address less common use cases.

A popular example demonstrates this issue: Until recently, image generators could not create a full wine glass. No matter what prompt you provided, a wine glass full to the edge was beyond the capabilities of all known generative AI software because they had never been provided photos of wine glasses full to the brim. Their data sets had to be updated to correct this comical problem, which revealed a much more serious one.

Decentralized data offers a solution. Globally incentivized systems like DePINs enable the participation of populations that would otherwise remain underserved, allowing the valuable data they provide to come online. This improves the service for everyone, making smaller global communities more accessible to commerce and enabling them easier access to the rest of the world. It also empowers smaller data creators to monetize their data rather than relinquishing it to tech giants. 

Where do we go from here?

The crypto industry is entering a new phase. A phase that’s more productive and sustainable. Expect to see rapid growth in working infrastructure, platforms and applications that welcome knowledgeable, consumer-friendly regulations and projects that respect the time and money of their users.

Opportunities within the crypto space are changing but not shrinking. Our opportunities grow as we learn from what has not worked in the last few years. They will take time to develop, but successful builders will focus on long-term, incremental change and sound business practices rather than chasing fads and short-term profits.

The momentum of real progress has never been stronger, and it is precisely during times like these, when it feels like no one’s watching, that the foundations of the future are laid.

Opinion by: Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.