Kristin Johnson of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has announced that she plans to depart the agency before 2026.

In a May 21 notice, Johnson said she planned to step down from the CFTC “later this year,” having completed her term, which ended in April. The commissioner filling a Democratic seat at the financial regulator had served since March 2022 after being nominated by former President Joe Biden.

In her farewell message, Johnson cited her work as a sponsor of the Market Risk Advisory Committee, which dealt with “nascent issues that arise with the introduction of decentralized financial products such as digital assets or cryptocurrency and other emerging markets.” 

CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson. Source: CFTCJohnson on X

Her departure could come before US President Donald Trump nominates a replacement and has them confirmed by a Senate majority. Commissioners Summer Mersinger and Christy Goldsmith Romero previously said they would step down on May 30 and May 31, respectively, and acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham said she planned to move “to the private sector” if Brian Quintenz were to be the next Senate-confirmed head of the agency.

One position on the five-seat CFTC panel has been empty since the departure of former chair Rostin Behnam in February. Under CFTC guidelines, commissioners can continue to serve beyond the end of their terms until a “successor is appointed and has qualified,” provided it is before the next session of Congress.

Related: KuCoin’s settlement with CFTC in flux after Trump policy shift

CFTC shakeup amid proposals for crypto market structure

Johnson’s notice suggested that the entire leadership of one of the most significant financial regulators in the US could be replaced by Trump’s picks as early as 2026. The president nominated Quintenz to serve as CFTC chair in February, but the Senate had not moved for a vote to confirm him in more than three months. 

Along with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the CFTC has handled specific regulatory and enforcement issues related to digital assets. However, the lack of “clear rules of the road,” according to some lawmakers and industry leaders, has led to calls for a law establishing a digital asset market regulatory structure, clarifying the roles each agency would have to play.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Solana Mobile, a subsidiary of blockchain technology company Solana Labs, has revealed the next steps for its soon-to-be-shipped Seeker device and the overall ecosystem. The steps include a new, trustless architecture, a native token, and the Seeker ship date.

According to the announcement, Solana Mobile will ship the device starting Aug. 4. Seeker is the company’s second-generation device, after the Saga Web3 phone that launched in April 2023.

The company unveiled the Seeker phone in September 2024, saying it wouldn’t just be a “memecoin phone.” So far, it has pre-sold 150,000 units.

The Solana Seeker has gone through two sale phases: The Founder window, where the price for each device was $450, and the Early Adopter window, where the price per device was $500.

Assuming the lower price window, Solana Mobile could generate at least $67.5 million in gross revenue from device sales. For comparison, the iPhone generated $199.3 billion in revenue for Apple in 2024.

The new architecture that will govern future Solana Mobile devices is called TEEPIN, which stands for “Trusted Execution Environment Platform Infrastructure Network.” It is a three-layer architecture — hardware, platform, and network layers — that will allow users, developers, and device makers to participate in a trustless environment.

Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder and CEO of Solana Labs, called TEEPIN “the next evolution in mobile” and a framework where trust is “verified by cryptography.”

In addition, Solana Mobile is planning to launch “SKR,” the native asset of the Solana Mobile ecosystem. “It transforms the traditional mobile business model by giving stakeholders actual ownership in the platform,” said Emmett Hollyer, general manager at Solana Mobile.

Related: Solana lacks ‘convincing signs’ of besting Ethereum: Sygnum

Solana Saga

Solana Mobile’s first released device, Saga, initially elicited mixed reactions from the Web3 community — some hailed it as Web3’s “iPhone moment,” while others pointed to the network’s outages as a drawback.

The Saga phone didn’t take off until late 2023, when a surge in the value of memecoins stored on the devices turned them into unexpected profit machines. Some units were listed on eBay for thousands of dollars, driven by growing demand. By December 2023, the Saga had completely sold out.

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

A New York jury found Braden John Karony, the former CEO of cryptocurrency company SafeMoon, guilty of three felony charges after less than a day of deliberation.

According to May 21 reporting from the courtroom, in the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York, a jury convicted Karony of conspiracy to defraud the United States, money laundering and wire fraud. Prosecutors and defense lawyers presented their cases over the roughly two-week trial that kicked off with jury selection on May 5.

Source: John Karony

Karony, former chief technology officer Thomas Smith and Kyle Nagy, the platform’s creator, were charged in 2023 for having allegedly “diverted and misappropriated millions of dollars’ worth” of SafeMoon’s SFM token. Smith testified against Karony at trial, while Nagy reportedly fled to Russia and was at large as of May 21.

The criminal trial involving a cryptocurrency company executive was seen by many as a bellwether for how Joseph Nocella, the interim US Attorney for the district, would handle cases involving digital assets and fraud. Nocella, a Donald Trump appointee, took office on May 5.

Related: SEC charges Unicoin crypto platform over alleged $100 million fraud

Latest in a line of crypto execs facing criminal charges

At the time of publication, it was unclear when Karony would return to court for sentencing. He could face years in prison for his role in the fraud at SafeMoon. Smith, who reportedly entered a guilty plea as part of a deal with prosecutors, could receive a lighter sentence.

Karony’s trial followed a sentencing hearing for former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky in the Southern District of New York, where a judge ordered him to prison for 12 years after a guilty plea. Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who pleaded not guilty and went to trial, was sentenced to 25 years after a 2023 verdict.

Magazine: Danger signs for Bitcoin as retail abandons it to institutions: Sky Wee

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out — a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out—a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out—a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out—a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out—a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out—a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage suggest the BTC rally has room to grow.

US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond sales support a Bitcoin push beyond $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to sustain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time high of $109,827 on May 21, which led traders to question whether derivatives markets mainly drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a closer look at the data shows a more positive outlook for further price gains.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the past two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during periods of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage reduces concerns about a rally driven primarily by derivatives.

Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows point to spot-driven rally

For comparison, during the previous Bitcoin $109,346 all-time high on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of leveraged bullish positions affecting the price. Therefore, the current Bitcoin derivatives market appears healthier, suggesting strong demand in spot markets.

During the January bull run, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase traded at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium is not present now, which means buying pressure is more evenly spread out—a sign of a healthier market.

Coinbase Bitcoin/USD relative to competitors. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While excessive buying pressure on a single exchange is not necessarily bearish, it can make it easier to trigger unsustainable price surges when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main driver of the recent price increases. 

Moreover, the $1.37 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 further suggests that spot buyers, rather than derivatives traders, were the primary force behind the rally.

Despite the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, several indicators point to further upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions were relatively low at $170 million between May 18 and May 21, cementing the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, the rally to $104,000 on May 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.

Related: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide

Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

On May 21, Bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (sell) options, but nothing unusual. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x during the previous bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting lower confidence due to reduced volumes in call (buy) options.

Bitcoin’s upward movement may have been limited by macroeconomic factors, especially as the tariff war continues. Still, the potential for the price to reach $110,000 and higher is partly based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity could ease recession concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.