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Growing BTC reserve requires Congressional legislation — VanEck exec

Building a permanent US strategic Bitcoin reserve would likely require targeted legislation rather than executive action, according to VanEck’s head of digital assets, Matthew Sigel. Speaking at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas, Sigel said the most viable path forward may involve inserting Bitcoin mining incentives into the congressional budget reconciliation process.

According to Sigel, the most effective path to growing a US strategic Bitcoin reserve would be through targeted amendments to congressional budget legislation. These could include tax credits for mining companies that use methane gas and other incentives aimed at encouraging miners to share a portion of their mined BTC with the federal government.

He argued that such an approach would allow the reserve to grow organically over time. Sigel also highlighted the limitations of executive actions in achieving this goal:

“The problem with executive action is that it’s going to prompt lawsuits. And anything over $100 million is going to get sued by the Elizabeth Warrens of the world. So, I would say start with something maybe in the Exchange Stabilization Fund for $100 million.”

US President Donald Trump established the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve through a March 7 executive order. According to the order, the US government can only acquire Bitcoin through budget-neutral strategies or asset forfeiture, prompting a range of different ideas on how to add to the government’s stockpile of nearly 200,000 BTC.

Bitcoin Regulation, US Government, United States, Bitcoin Reserve, Bitcoin2025From left to right, Alex Thorn, Matthew Sigel, Matthew Pines and Fred Thiel. Source: Turner Wright/Cointelegraph

Related: Bitcoin’s new highs may have been driven by Japan bond market crisis

Lawmakers, officials pitch different ideas to grow strategic Bitcoin reserve

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, the US lawmaker who introduced legislation for a Bitcoin strategic reserve in July 2024, proposed converting a portion of the gold certificates held by the US Treasury to Bitcoin.

Converting gold to Bitcoin would allow the US government to purchase more Bitcoin without incurring a cost to the taxpayer, Lummis said.

Bo Hines, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, echoed the idea in March 2025.

Hines called on the US Treasury to revalue its gold holdings, which are currently priced at just $42.22 per troy ounce, and convert a portion of those gains to Bitcoin. This strategy would also be budget-neutral, Hines said.

The price of gold reached an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April but experienced a minor pullback to around $3,300 on May 27.

Magazine: TradFi fans ignored Lyn Alden’s BTC tip — Now she says it’ll hit 7 figures: X Hall of Flame

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Trump supports bill to buy 1 million BTC — Senator Lummis

US President Donald Trump supports the BITCOIN Act and has a team of experts in the White House working to roll out landmark digital asset legislation in the coming weeks, according to Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis. 

Speaking at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, Lummis said she is bringing the BITCOIN ACT to the “attention of the American people and the world,” adding that, “President Trump supports the bill.”

In March, Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act — landmark legislation that directs the US government to acquire 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) over five years. The acquisitions would be financed using existing funds within the Federal Reserve System and the Treasury Department. 

As Cointelegraph reported, the Trump administration has reiterated the need to use “budget-neutral ways” to acquire Bitcoin without burdening taxpayers.

Trump supports bill to buy 1 million BTC — Senator LummisSource: CryptoGoos

At the Bitcoin Conference, Lummis said the Trump administration has a team working on “digital asset issues,” including legislation on stablecoins, market structure and the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

“They will probably roll out in that order,” she said.

“The Senate Banking Committee has passed the stablecoin bill out of committee,” said Lummis, adding:

“We’re getting close to being ready to have it on the floor. We’ve worked for untold hours with the minority party to satisfy them, and we should be voting on it the week before we get back from this break.”

Related: Senator Lummis’ new BITCOIN Act allows US reserve to exceed 1M Bitcoin

GENIUS Act on stablecoins is “going to pass,” says White House crypto czar

The White House seems to be in alignment with Senator Lummis.

Last week, Trump’s top crypto adviser, David Sacks, said the GENIUS stablecoin bill is “going to pass” the Senate with bipartisan support after clearing a key procedural vote on May 19.

Trump supports bill to buy 1 million BTC — Senator LummisOn May 19, the Senate voted 66 to 32 to advance debate on the GENIUS Bill. Source: US Senate

GENIUS refers to the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, possibly the most comprehensive federal push to establish a legal framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins.

Stablecoins have become one of the most prominent use cases for blockchain technology, with some industry advocates arguing that they could help extend the US dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency.

Collateralized, dollar-backed stablecoins like Tether’s USDt (USDT) and Circle’s USDC (USDC) account for more than 85% of the $250 billion market, according to CoinMarketCap.

Related: Former CFTC chair criticizes STABLE Act amid calls for urgent regulatory clarity

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Selling Bitcoin is like playing in a ‘bad house-rate casino’ — Adam Back

Selling Bitcoin is like “playing in a really bad house-rate casino,” according to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of Bitcoin’s earliest adopters. In a recent interview with Bitcoin financial services firm Unchained, Back said the odds are stacked against traders trying to time the market.

Back came to this conclusion in the early days of Bitcoin, he said, when the price “was going up basically exponentially but it [was] extremely volatile.”

“So […] if you see something that’s going up exponentially but with volatility, if you sell it to time the market a bit falling, the odds are against you,” Back said, adding:

“The trend line is up and to the right, exponential, and so there’s extremely bad trading odds attached to selling because you’re really hoping that it falls.”Selling Bitcoin is like playing in a ‘bad house-rate casino’ — Adam BackAdam Back during the interview. Source: Unchained

Bitcoin is known for its extreme volatility and heightened bull-bear market cycles. It has seen multiple corrections above 80%, which may test the stomach of many investors and believers. However, those who have remained steady through the ups and downs have been rewarded: In the last 10 years, BTC has had a total return of over 39,000%.

“I think anything that has a really rapid growth curve ends up with some pretty extreme volatility until it gets closer to full adoption,” Back said.

Interview, Adam Back, Bitcoin AdoptionAverage returns of the Bitcoin index. Source: Curvo

Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?

Diminishing returns theory might not be in play this cycle

Back pointed to several factors that could support upward price momentum. He noted that companies like Strategy are not only acquiring Bitcoin directly but also offering indirect exposure through instruments such as convertible notes.

Another contributing factor is the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, including investments by sovereign wealth funds. He cited Abu Dhabi’s $408.5 million stake in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.

Finally, government entities are starting to venture into crypto. US President Donald Trump issued an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, while the US state of New Hampshire’s governor recently signed such a reserve into law. Texas lawmakers recently passed a bill allowing the state to create a state Bitcoin reserve.

Magazine: Hall of Flame: NBA star Tristan Thompson misses $32B in Bitcoin by taking $82M contract in cash

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Maple Finance, FalconX secure Bitcoin-backed loans from Cantor Fitzgerald — Report

Wall Street financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald has closed its first Bitcoin lending deal nearly a year after announcing its crypto lending services.

According to a May 27 Bloomberg report, Cantor provided Bitcoin-backed loans to FalconX and Maple Finance. FalconX, a digital asset broker, said it secured a facility worth over $100 million as part of a “broader credit framework,” while Maple Finance reportedly closed the first tranche of an agreement with Cantor.

The service allows companies holding Bitcoin to borrow funds and use the cryptocurrency as collateral, providing a way to unlock liquidity without selling their BTC holdings. Cantor announced its Bitcoin financing business with an initial capital of $2 billion in July 2024, targeting institutional investors seeking to leverage their Bitcoin. At the time, the company said Anchorage Digital and Copper would serve as custodians and collateral managers in the venture.

Credit markets are a fundamental part of the financial system, allowing capital to flow between borrowers and lenders and supporting economic activity across sectors. Their central role also means they can contribute to financial distress when risks are mismanaged. While mirroring some functions of traditional finance, crypto credit markets have been operating with less regulatory oversight.

Digital asset crisis of 2022

This dynamic was evident during the 2022 crisis in the digital asset sector. Celsius Network, once a leading crypto lending platform, collapsed after engaging in risky financial practices and facing allegations of fraud. Similarly, BlockFi filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2022 following significant exposure to the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

According to a report from Galaxy, the total crypto lending market, including crypto-backed collateralized debt positions (CDPs) tied to stablecoins, stood at $36.5 billion in the last quarter of 2024, marking a 43% decline from its all-time high of $64.4 billion in 2021. Despite the broader contraction, onchain lending platforms have seen a dramatic rebound, with open borrowed positions surging to $19.1 billion by Q4 2024, a 959% increase over two years.

Lending, Digital AssetCrypto lending markets remain well below their Q1 2022 peak. Source: GalaxyCantor’s crypto arm

Cantor is one of the most traditional financial services companies in the United States. Founded in 1945, it offers a range of services for institutions, including investment banking, brokerage, equity and fixed-income sales and trading. The company claims to serve over 5,000 clients across 20 countries.

The company’s CEO, Howard Lutnick, has been an advocate for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity, akin to gold and oil, and has called for clearer regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in the US. Lutnick was also appointed to co-lead US President Donald Trump’s transition team in 2024.

Cantor is also one of the managers of Tether’s US Treasury securities portfolio backing its stablecoin. In early 2024, the firm acquired a 5% stake in Tether.

Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Bitcoin price held up by corporate adoption and ‘inflation hedge’ narratives

Key takeaways:

Institutional investor demand and corporate adoption may push Bitcoin higher despite recession fears.

Investors’ belief that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates favors Bitcoin price upside.

Stock markets around the world responded positively to the temporary suspension of import tariffs between the United States and the European Union, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5% on May 27. However, concerns over a global economic recession persist, capping Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside, especially since the baseline US import rates have been raised for most regions.

Bitcoin remains antifragile and poised to outperform in uncertain times

Given the growing investor uncertainty about economic conditions, Bitcoin hovering around the $110,000 level has taken investors by surprise as it consolidates the top-six position as a global tradable asset by market capitalization. Investors now ask whether Bitcoin is becoming antifragile or if a drop below $100,000 is inevitable in a recessionary environment.

Traders currently estimate a 41% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates through September, a steep rise from just 2% one month ago. 

Bitcoin price held up by corporate adoption and ‘inflation hedge’ narrativesCME FEDWatch target rate probabilities. Source: CME

Normally, a higher cost for capital is bearish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. However, in this context, it also suggests potential liquidity injections from the Fed, given the unfavorable US fiscal outlook, where government spending exceeds revenue capacity.

US President Donald Trump has called for lower interest rates, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious due to a strong labor market and rising inflation pressures, whether driven by tariffs or easy credit conditions. This tension helps explain why the S&P 500 has struggled to retake its February all-time high of 6,147 and why Bitcoin’s upside has also been limited.

Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.2 trillion now exceeds that of Google and Meta, which partially explains the $112,000 resistance level. Still, it would be inaccurate to suggest Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional markets; its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has remained above 70% over the past four weeks. As such, if equities enter a bear market, Bitcoin is likely to face downside as well.

Bitcoin price held up by corporate adoption and ‘inflation hedge’ narratives30-day correlation: Bitcoin/USD vs. S&P 500 futures. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Companies are currently reporting earnings for the first quarter, a period that predates the escalation of the trade war. As a result, the stock market may take longer to reflect the full negative impact, even as macroeconomic indicators show signs of contraction. The 6.3% drop in US durable goods orders in April, reported on May 27, could be the first signal of a weakening economy.

Bitcoin price held up by corporate adoption and ‘inflation hedge’ narrativesUS durable goods–new orders for April. Source: US Census Bureau

However, even if corporate earnings for the first quarter fall short of expectations, this does not automatically mean the S&P 500 will suffer significantly. In fact, disappointing results could open the door for faster interest rate cuts, which tend to benefit companies by lowering financing costs and potentially stimulating consumer demand.

Bitcoin’s appeal as a strategic asset grows, Trump Media joins the party

Bitcoin’s risk profile appears to have improved after Trump Media and Technology Group announced plans to acquire BTC following a $2.5 billion mix of debt and equity financing. “We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said, according to Reuters. This development suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $112,000 is not solely tied to broader economic growth.

Related: Bitcoin stalls at $110K but institutional investors continue gobbling up BTC

The growing institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin adds a new dimension to its market behavior. While macroeconomic trends and correlations with traditional assets still matter, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a strategic asset with utility beyond speculation. As such, its performance could diverge, at least partially, from that of equities, especially as adoption broadens among influential companies and investors.

While the stock market may remain sensitive to macro data and earnings surprises, Bitcoin’s upside potential appears to rest on a mix of monetary policy, institutional positioning and its emerging role as a hedge against systemic financial risk.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Trump Media Group reverses stance, confirms $2.5B Bitcoin capital raise

Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), the company that owns US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform and is partially owned by the president, confirmed a $2.5 billion capital raise to purchase Bitcoin (BTC) after denying earlier reports of the deal.

According to a May 27 announcement from the company, the capital raise comprises a $1.5 billion stock sale and $1 billion in convertible senior secured bonds, with a 0% coupon. The sale is expected to close on May 29. TMTG CEO Devin Nunes said:

“We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom, and now Trump Media will hold cryptocurrency as a crucial part of our assets. This investment will help defend our Company against harassment and discrimination by financial institutions.”

TMTG spokespeople responded to the initial report from the Financial Times, published a day before the announcement, with derision.

“Apparently, the Financial Times has dumb writers listening to even dumber sources,” TMTG representatives told the FT.

Bitcoin Price, Donald Trump, Bitcoin Adoption, Bitcoin ReserveShares of TMTG sank following the $2.5 billion capital raise announcement. Source: TradingView

Shares of TMTG fell by over 12% following the announcement and were trading around $23.60 at the time of publication.

The funding deal comes as a growing number of corporations and countries adopt Bitcoin treasury strategies as the digital asset matures into a financial instrument of geopolitical importance.

Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?

Bitcoin treasury companies keep stacking

Several Bitcoin treasury companies increased their holdings in May this year, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy. According to SaylorTracker, the company acquired an additional 4,020 BTC on May 26.

Technology company Semler Scientific purchased 455 BTC, valued at over $50 million, for its treasury, an acquisition the company disclosed in a May 23 filing.

Investment firm MetaPlanet, widely regarded by investors as Japan’s MicroStrategy, acquired an additional 1,004 BTC on May 19.

Market analyst Jesse Myers recently predicted that at the current rate of institutional accumulation, large entities will own 50% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2045.

Myers added that this growth in institutional adoption is driven by a flight to safety from traditional asset classes.

“Over the last two years, an exodus from fiat assets — bonds and money — has already begun. Hard money assets, BTC and gold, are where things are shifting,” the analyst wrote in a May 22 X post.

Magazine: Metric signals $250K Bitcoin is ‘best case,’ SOL, HYPE tipped for gains: Trade Secrets

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Ramaswami’s Strive raises $750M for ‘alpha-generating’ Bitcoin buy strategy

Strive, an asset manager founded by American entrepreneur and politician Vivek Ramaswamy, has announced a $750 million raise to establish “alpha-generating” strategies through Bitcoin-related purchases.

According to a May 27 announcement, the strategies will include buying undervalued biotech companies, purchasing “distressed Bitcoin claims” like those associated with crypto hacks and bankruptcies, and acquiring bottom tranches of Bitcoin credit vehicles at discounted prices.

“ […] our alpha-generating Bitcoin accumulation strategies are designed to drive sustained outperformance relative to Bitcoin itself, which requires a new valuation framework,” Strive CEO Matt Cole said.

Related: Strive targets Intuit for Bitcoin buys after orange-pilling GameStop

The $750 million raise could expand further through the exercise of warrants, potentially doubling the total to $1.5 billion. The announcement indicates that the entire raise could go to Bitcoin purchases, which could make Strive the fifth-largest Bitcoin treasury company.

The raise, completed through private investment, was priced at $1.35 per share of common stock. The funds were raised in partnership with Asset Entities, a marketing company that Strive plans to merge with.

Strive announced its intentions to deploy a Bitcoin treasury strategy in early May, also revealing plans to go public through a reverse merger with social media marketing company Asset Entities.

In a May 20 regulatory filing, the company shared plans to purchase 75,000 BTC from the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox, targeting claims that have received definitive legal rulings and in line for distribution.

The company began offering Bitcoin to clients in November 2024 and sought regulators’ permission to offer a Bitcoin bond exchange-traded fund in the same year.

Vivek Ramaswamy, a billionaire who largely built his net worth through his biotech company Roivant Sciences, ran against US President Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primaries. He later withdrew and endorsed Trump.

Trump signed an executive order in March to create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Read more at cointelegraph.com

BlackRock in-house portfolio boosts IBIT Bitcoin ETF exposure by 25%

BlackRock’s in-house portfolio has been quietly accumulating shares of its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), underscoring the asset manager’s growing commitment to the cryptocurrency as part of a broader diversification strategy.

As of March 31, 2025, the BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio held 2,123,592 shares of the company’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), valued at $99.4 million, according to filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). That’s a notable uptick from Dec. 31, 2024, when the portfolio held 1,691,143 IBIT shares. 

BlackRock in-house portfolio boosts IBIT Bitcoin ETF exposure by 25%The BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio’s consolidated schedule of investments as of March 31, 2025. Source: SEC

BlackRock’s IBIT was among 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC in January 2024. Since then, it has emerged as the largest fund in its category with more than $72 billion in net assets, according to Bitbo data.

The second-largest US Bitcoin ETF is the Fidelity Wise Origin Fund (FBTC), which trails IBIT in net assets by $50 billion. 

The Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio is primarily a bond-focused strategy that also seeks diversified exposure to other markets, aiming to boost total returns while preserving capital, BlackRock’s prospectus reads

BlackRock in-house portfolio boosts IBIT Bitcoin ETF exposure by 25%Source: MacroScope

Related: Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke records in 2024 — Can they do it again in 2025?

Bitcoin ETF demand continues to rise among institutional investors

US spot Bitcoin ETFs shattered records in their debut year, and 2025 is shaping up to deliver a similar performance. 

As reported by Cointelegraph, May is shaping up to be a record month for spot ETFs, which saw more than $1.5 billion in net inflows over just two days.

BlackRock’s IBIT has driven much of that growth, posting consistent inflows since April 9, including multiple days with net buys topping $500 million. 

Net inflows indicate that asset managers are buying shares of the Bitcoin ETFs to meet growing investor demand.

Using the early success of gold ETFs as a benchmark, asset manager Bitwise recently projected that Bitcoin fund inflows could reach $120 billion this year and more than double to $300 billion by 2026.

BlackRock in-house portfolio boosts IBIT Bitcoin ETF exposure by 25%In terms of net inflows, Bitcoin ETFs vastly outperformed gold ETFs in their debut year. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. Source: Bitwise Asset Management

While spot Bitcoin ETFs have opened the door for retail and institutional investors, a major untapped market remains: the wealth management platforms and wirehouses of major institutions, Bitwise analysts Juan Leon, Guillaume Girard and Will Owens wrote in the report.

Magazine: Bitcoin bears eye $69K, CZ denies WLF ‘fixer’ rumors: Hodler’s Digest, May 18 – 24

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Bitcoin profit taking lingers, but rally to $115K will liquidate $7B shorts

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin could turn parabolic if prices move above $115,000 to liquidate more than $7 billion in short positions.

Onchain indicators enter overheated territory, suggesting prolonged profit taking from BTC investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on May 27, briefly tagging $110,700 after a strong US equities market open and the Trump Media and Technology Group’s announcement that it would raise $2.5 billion for a Bitcoin treasury.

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum aligns with the favorable US financial conditions, as noted by Ecoinometrics. The macroeconomic-focused Bitcoin newsletter highlighted that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows a rapid shift to ultra-loose territory after a tightening phase in February 2025.

The NFCI, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tracks stress in the financial system by aggregating measures like credit spreads, leverage, and funding conditions. When the index moves into looser territory, it reflects easier access to capital and reduced market stress — conditions that typically encourage risk-taking behavior among investors.

For high-beta assets like Bitcoin, such periods often coincide with price rallies as capital flows into speculative markets.

Bitcoin profit taking lingers, but rally to $115K will liquidate $7B shortsUS National Financial Conditions Index. Source: Ecoinometrics

Ecoinometrics mentioned that within four weeks, liquidity has returned, creating a supportive macroeconomic environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The newsletter noted,

“That’s the kind of macro backdrop where Bitcoin thrives. Bitcoin’s rally to new highs didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s tracking the same pattern we saw since 2023: easing conditions → capital rotation → risk-on.”

With Bitcoin just 2% away from its all-time high price, data from CoinGlass indicates that the probability of a short-squeeze remains high due to significant sell-side liquidity. As illustrated below, if Bitcoin breaches $115,000, over $7 billion in short positions could get liquidated, triggering a cascading effect that pushes prices higher.

Bitcoin profit taking lingers, but rally to $115K will liquidate $7B shortsBitcoin liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin shows signs of ‘easing momentum’ but traders still expect $150K

Onchain data shows Bitcoin in “overheated zone”

While the overall momentum remains bullish, Bitcoin’s rally has pushed the market into a zone where historical patterns urge caution. Two key onchain indicators — Supply in Profit Market Bands and the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio — are flashing signals consistent with prior market tops.

The Supply in Profit Market Bands metric tracks how much of the circulating BTC supply is currently in profit. As of late May 2025, this figure has surged to 19.4 million BTC, nearing historical extremes and entering the “Overheated Zone.” Previously, BTC prices tested this zone on Dec. 17, 2025, which was followed by a price correction to $93,000 from $107,000.

Bitcoin profit taking lingers, but rally to $115K will liquidate $7B shortsBitcoin Supply in Profit Market Bands. Source: CryptoQuant

Simultaneously, the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio (NUSR), which compares profitable versus unprofitable UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), is brushing against its historical ceiling around 0.95 — a level frequently preceding sell signals. Red markers on the chart indicate prior instances when such conditions led to local price tops or prolonged consolidations.

Bitcoin profit taking lingers, but rally to $115K will liquidate $7B shortsBitcoin Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The above data does not guarantee an immediate drop, but these metrics suggest a high probability of increased volatility and profit taking in the short term.

Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Read more at cointelegraph.com

Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1K

Key takeaways:

Ethereum has reclaimed a key level that preceded 100%+ rallies and triggered past altseasons.

Altcoin market cap could surge toward $15 trillion if Bitcoin dominance repeats its post-halving drop.

Despite bullish signals, ETH remains fragile, with $123B in supply near cost basis at risk of flipping into a loss.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has reclaimed a key technical level that has historically preceded sharp price gains and marked the start of an “altseason” across multiple market cycles in the last five years.

ETH price can double in the coming months

The level in question is the mid-line (~$2,600) of the Gaussian Channel — a moving average-based band that tracks long-term momentum — on the 2-week chart.

Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1KETH/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

In 2020-2021, ETH rallied from $400 to over $4,800 after closing above the Gaussian mid-line. A similar move in late 2023 saw ETH climb from below $1,500 to nearly $4,000 within a year.

In both instances, ETH quickly advanced toward and broke above the channel’s upper band as momentum built.

As of May 2025, that upper band sat near $3,200, making it the next key resistance. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the previous cycle high of $4,100 by July.

Related: Ethereum price chart targets $4K as transaction fees hit 3-month high

The next ETH pump may start altseason — Analysts

ETH price rally may further influence the broader altcoin market to rise alongside, according to market analyst Moustache, who cited the same Gaussian Channel fractal.

Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1KSource: Moustache

The combined market cap of the altcoin market, excluding Ethereum, surged by over 1,400% over a year after Ether’s close above the channel’s midline in July 2020.

Similarly, the altcoin market cap gained by more than 200% a year after ETH’s midline breakout in November 2023.

Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1KETH/USDT two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

The prospect of a 2025 altseason strengthens with a repeating post-Bitcoin-halving pattern.

In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply around 400 days after the halving, triggering altcoin rallies. With the April 2024 halving nearing the same period, a similar decline could occur within the next 100 days.

Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1KBTC.D performance chart. Source: Wimar X

Analyst Wimar X expects the altcoin market cap to surge toward $15 trillion if the trend repeats.

Ethereum metric warns about potential bull trap

The largest portion of ETH’s market cap — around $123 billion — is held by investors who bought between $2,300 and $2,500, according to onchain data from Glassnode.

Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1KETH market cap by profit and loss. Source: Glassnode

If ETH’s price drops even slightly below this range, a large number of holders would fall into a loss. That could increase the risk of panic selling, adding pressure to the market.

So while ETH is showing technical strength, its support remains shallow unless it can move further away from this cost zone.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Read more at cointelegraph.com