Ether is struggling to reverse a near three-month downtrend as macroeconomic concerns and continued selling pressure from US Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) weigh on investor sentiment.

Ether (ETH) has fallen by more than 53% since it began its downtrend on Dec. 16, 2024, when it peaked above $4,100, TradingView data shows.

The downtrend has been fueled by global uncertainty around US import tariffs triggering trade war concerns and a lack of builder activity on the Ethereum network, according to Bifinex analysts.

ETH/USD, 1-day chart, downtrend. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView 

“A lack of new projects or builders moving to ETH, primarily due to high operating fees, is likely the principal reason behind the lackluster performance of ETH. […] We believe that for ETH, $1,800 will be a strong level to watch,” the analysts told Cointelegraph.

“However, the current sell-off is not being seen solely in ETH, we have seen a marketwide correction as fears over the impact of tariffs hit all risk assets,” they added.

Related: Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations

Crypto investors are also wary of an early bear market cycle that could break from the traditional four-year crypto market pattern.

Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of falling to $70,000 as cryptocurrencies and global financial markets undergo a “macro correction” while remaining in a bull market cycle, said Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at blockchain analytics firm Nansen.

Related: Deutsche Boerse to launch Bitcoin, Ether institutional custody: Report

Ether price limited by ETF outflows

Adding to Ethereum’s challenges, continued outflows from Ether ETFs are limiting the asset’s price recovery, according to Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo:

“ETH’s 20% decline last week pushed its price below the key $2,200 trendline that had supported its bull market recovery since 2022. The modest price action may be attributed, as with Bitcoin, to ETFs.”

US spot Ether ETFs have entered their fourth week of consecutive net negative outflows, after seeing over $119 million worth of cumulative outflows during the previous week, Sosovalue data shows.

Total spot Ether ETF net inflow. Source: Sosovalue

Still, some notable institutional crypto market participants remain optimistic about Ether’s price for 2025. VanEck predicted a $6,000 cycle top for Ether’s price and a $180,000 Bitcoin price during 2025.

Magazine: Ethereum L2s will be interoperable ‘within months’: Complete guide

Ether is struggling to reverse a near three-month downtrend as macroeconomic concerns and continued selling pressure from US Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) weigh on investor sentiment.

Ether (ETH) has fallen by more than 53% since it began its downtrend on Dec. 16, 2024, after it had peaked above $4,100, TradingView data shows.

The downtrend has been fueled by global uncertainty around US import tariffs triggering trade war concerns and a lack of builder activity on the Ethereum network, according to Bitfinex analysts.

ETH/USD, 1-day chart, downtrend. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView 

“A lack of new projects or builders moving to ETH, primarily due to high operating fees, is likely the principal reason behind the lackluster performance of ETH. […] We believe that for ETH, $1,800 will be a strong level to watch,” the analysts told Cointelegraph.

“However, the current sell-off is not being seen solely in ETH, we have seen a marketwide correction as fears over the impact of tariffs hit all risk assets,” they added.

Related: Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations

Crypto investors are also wary of an early bear market cycle that could break from the traditional four-year crypto market pattern.

Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of falling to $70,000 as cryptocurrencies and global financial markets undergo a “macro correction” while remaining in a bull market cycle, said Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at blockchain analytics firm Nansen.

Related: Deutsche Boerse to launch Bitcoin, Ether institutional custody: Report

Ether price limited by ETF outflows

Adding to Ethereum’s challenges, continued outflows from Ether ETFs are limiting the asset’s price recovery, according to Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo:

“ETH’s 20% decline last week pushed its price below the key $2,200 trendline that had supported its bull market recovery since 2022. The modest price action may be attributed, as with Bitcoin, to ETFs.”

US spot Ether ETFs have entered a fourth consecutive week of net negative outflows, after seeing over $119 million worth of cumulative outflows during the previous week, Sosovalue data shows.

Total spot Ether ETF net inflow. Source: Sosovalue

Still, some notable institutional crypto market participants remain optimistic about Ether’s price for 2025. VanEck predicted a $6,000 cycle top for Ether’s price and a $180,000 Bitcoin price during 2025.

Magazine: Ethereum L2s will be interoperable ‘within months’: Complete guide

Bitcoin exchange-traded products may have fundamentally altered the concept of a crypto “altseason.”

For years, the crypto market followed a familiar rhythm, a near-predictable dance of capital rotation. Bitcoin (BTC) surged, bringing mainstream attention and liquidity, and then the floodgates opened to altcoins. Speculative capital rushed into lower-cap assets, inflating their values in what traders euphorically deemed “altseason.”

However, once taken for granted, this cycle shows signs of a structural collapse. 

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered records, funneling $129 billion in capital inflows in 2024. This has provided unprecedented access to Bitcoin for both retail and institutional investors, yet it has also created a vacuum, sucking capital away from speculative assets. Institutional players now have a safe, regulated way to gain exposure to crypto without the Wild West risks of the altcoin market. Many retail investors are also finding ETFs more appealing than the perilous hunt for the next 100x token. Well-known Bitcoin analyst Plan B even traded in his actual BTC for a spot ETF. 

The shift is happening in real time, and if the capital remains locked in structured products, altcoins face a diminishing share of market liquidity and relevance. 

Is the altseason dead? The rise of structured crypto exposure

Bitcoin ETFs offer an alternative to chasing high-risk, low-cap assets, as investors can access leverage, liquidity and regulatory clarity through structured products. The retail crowd, once a major driver of altcoin speculation, now has direct access to Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) ETFs, vehicles that eliminate self-custody concerns, mitigate counterparty risk and align with traditional investment frameworks. 

Institutions have even greater incentives to sidestep altcoin risk. Hedge funds and professional trading desks, which once chased higher returns in low-liquidity altcoins, can deploy leverage through derivatives or take exposure via ETFs on legacy financial rails. 

Related: BlackRock adds BTC ETF to $150B model portfolio product

With the ability to hedge through options and futures, the incentive to gamble on illiquid, low-volume altcoins diminishes significantly. This has been further reinforced by the record $2.4 billion in outflows in February and arbitrage opportunities created by ETF redemptions, forcing a level of discipline into crypto markets that did not previously exist.

The traditional “cycle” starts with Bitcoin and moves to an altseason. Source: Cointelegraph Research

Will venture capital abandon crypto startups?

Venture capital (VC) firms have historically been the lifeblood of alt seasons, injecting liquidity into nascent projects and spinning grand narratives around emerging tokens. 

However, with leverage being easily accessible and capital efficiency a key priority, VCs are rethinking their approach. 

VCs strive to make as much return on investment (ROI) as possible, but the typical range is between 17% and 25%. In traditional finance, the risk-free rate of capital serves as the benchmark against which all investments are measured, typically represented by US Treasury yields. 

In the crypto space, Bitcoin’s historical growth rate functions as a similar baseline for expected returns. This effectively becomes the industry’s version of the risk-free rate. Over the last decade, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 10 years has averaged 77%, significantly outperforming traditional assets like gold (8%) and the S&P 500 (11%). Even over the past five years, including both bull and bear market conditions, Bitcoin has maintained a 67% CAGR. 

Using this as a baseline, a venture capitalist deploying capital in Bitcoin or Bitcoin-related ventures at this growth rate would see a total ROI of approximately 1,199% over five years, meaning the investment would increase nearly 12x. 

Related: Altcoin ETFs are coming, but demand may be limited: Analysts

While Bitcoin remains volatile, its long-term outperformance has positioned it as the fundamental benchmark for evaluating risk-adjusted returns in the crypto space. With arbitrage opportunities and reduced risk, VCs may play the safer bet. 

In 2024, VC deal counts dropped 46%, even as overall investment volumes rebounded in Q4. This signals a shift toward more selective, high-value projects rather than speculative funding. 

Web3 and AI-driven crypto startups are still drawing attention, but the days of indiscriminate funding for every token with a white paper may be numbered. If venture capital pivots further toward structured exposure through ETFs rather than a direct investment in risky startups, the consequences could be severe for new altcoin projects.

Meanwhile, the few altcoin projects that have made it onto institutional radars — such as Aptos, which recently saw an ETF filing — are exceptions, not the rule. Even crypto index ETFs, designed to capture broader exposure, have struggled to attract meaningful inflows, underscoring that capital is concentrated rather than dispersed.

The oversupply problem and the new market reality

The landscape has shifted. The sheer number of altcoins vying for attention has created a saturation problem. According to Dune Analytics, over 40 million tokens are currently on the market. 1.2 million new tokens were launched on average per month in 2024, and over 5 million have been created since the start of 2025.

With institutions gravitating toward structured exposure and a lack of retail-driven speculative demand, liquidity is not trickling down to altcoins as it once did.

This presents a hard truth: Most altcoins will not make it. The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, recently warned that most of these assets are unlikely to survive without a fundamental shift in market structure. “The era of everything pumping is over,” Ju said in a recent X post. 

The traditional playbook of waiting for Bitcoin dominance to wane before rotating into altcoins may no longer apply in an era where capital stays locked in ETFs and perps rather than free-flowing into speculative assets.

The crypto market is not what it once was. The days of easy, cyclical altcoin rallies may be replaced by an ecosystem where capital efficiency, structured financial products and regulatory clarity dictate where the money flows. ETFs are changing how people invest in Bitcoin and fundamentally altering liquidity distribution across the entire market.

For those who built their strategies on the assumption that an altcoin boom would follow every Bitcoin rally, the time may have come to reconsider. The rules may have changed as the market has matured.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin exchange-traded products may have fundamentally altered the concept of a crypto “altseason.”

For years, the crypto market followed a familiar rhythm, a near-predictable dance of capital rotation. Bitcoin (BTC) surged, bringing mainstream attention and liquidity, and then the floodgates opened to altcoins. Speculative capital rushed into lower-cap assets, inflating their values in what traders euphorically deemed “altseason.”

However, once taken for granted, this cycle shows signs of a structural collapse. 

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered records, funneling $129 billion in capital inflows in 2024. This has provided unprecedented access to Bitcoin for both retail and institutional investors, yet it has also created a vacuum, sucking capital away from speculative assets. Institutional players now have a safe, regulated way to gain exposure to crypto without the Wild West risks of the altcoin market. Many retail investors are also finding ETFs more appealing than the perilous hunt for the next 100x token. Well-known Bitcoin analyst Plan B even traded in his actual BTC for a spot ETF. 

The shift is happening in real time, and if the capital remains locked in structured products, altcoins face a diminishing share of market liquidity and relevance. 

Is the altseason dead? The rise of structured crypto exposure

Bitcoin ETFs offer an alternative to chasing high-risk, low-cap assets, as investors can access leverage, liquidity and regulatory clarity through structured products. The retail crowd, once a major driver of altcoin speculation, now has direct access to Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) ETFs, vehicles that eliminate self-custody concerns, mitigate counterparty risk and align with traditional investment frameworks. 

Institutions have even greater incentives to sidestep altcoin risk. Hedge funds and professional trading desks, which once chased higher returns in low-liquidity altcoins, can deploy leverage through derivatives or take exposure via ETFs on legacy financial rails. 

Related: BlackRock adds BTC ETF to $150B model portfolio product

With the ability to hedge through options and futures, the incentive to gamble on illiquid, low-volume altcoins diminishes significantly. This has been further reinforced by the record $2.4 billion in outflows in February and arbitrage opportunities created by ETF redemptions, forcing a level of discipline into crypto markets that did not previously exist.

The traditional “cycle” starts with Bitcoin and moves to an altseason. Source: Cointelegraph Research

Will venture capital abandon crypto startups?

Venture capital (VC) firms have historically been the lifeblood of alt seasons, injecting liquidity into nascent projects and spinning grand narratives around emerging tokens. 

However, with leverage being easily accessible and capital efficiency a key priority, VCs are rethinking their approach. 

VCs strive to make as much return on investment (ROI) as possible, but the typical range is between 17% and 25%. In traditional finance, the risk-free rate of capital serves as the benchmark against which all investments are measured, typically represented by US Treasury yields. 

In the crypto space, Bitcoin’s historical growth rate functions as a similar baseline for expected returns. This effectively becomes the industry’s version of the risk-free rate. Over the last decade, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 10 years has averaged 77%, significantly outperforming traditional assets like gold (8%) and the S&P 500 (11%). Even over the past five years, including both bull and bear market conditions, Bitcoin has maintained a 67% CAGR. 

Using this as a baseline, a venture capitalist deploying capital in Bitcoin or Bitcoin-related ventures at this growth rate would see a total ROI of approximately 1,199% over five years, meaning the investment would increase nearly 12x. 

Related: Altcoin ETFs are coming, but demand may be limited: Analysts

While Bitcoin remains volatile, its long-term outperformance has positioned it as the fundamental benchmark for evaluating risk-adjusted returns in the crypto space. With arbitrage opportunities and reduced risk, VCs may play the safer bet. 

In 2024, VC deal counts dropped 46%, even as overall investment volumes rebounded in Q4. This signals a shift toward more selective, high-value projects rather than speculative funding. 

Web3 and AI-driven crypto startups are still drawing attention, but the days of indiscriminate funding for every token with a white paper may be numbered. If venture capital pivots further toward structured exposure through ETFs rather than a direct investment in risky startups, the consequences could be severe for new altcoin projects.

Meanwhile, the few altcoin projects that have made it onto institutional radars — such as Aptos, which recently saw an ETF filing — are exceptions, not the rule. Even crypto index ETFs, designed to capture broader exposure, have struggled to attract meaningful inflows, underscoring that capital is concentrated rather than dispersed.

The oversupply problem and the new market reality

The landscape has shifted. The sheer number of altcoins vying for attention has created a saturation problem. According to Dune Analytics, over 40 million tokens are currently on the market. 1.2 million new tokens were launched on average per month in 2024, and over 5 million have been created since the start of 2025.

With institutions gravitating toward structured exposure and a lack of retail-driven speculative demand, liquidity is not trickling down to altcoins as it once did.

This presents a hard truth: Most altcoins will not make it. The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, recently warned that most of these assets are unlikely to survive without a fundamental shift in market structure. “The era of everything pumping is over,” Ju said in a recent X post. 

The traditional playbook of waiting for Bitcoin dominance to wane before rotating into altcoins may no longer apply in an era where capital stays locked in ETFs and perps rather than free-flowing into speculative assets.

The crypto market is not what it once was. The days of easy, cyclical altcoin rallies may be replaced by an ecosystem where capital efficiency, structured financial products and regulatory clarity dictate where the money flows. ETFs are changing how people invest in Bitcoin and fundamentally altering liquidity distribution across the entire market.

For those who built their strategies on the assumption that an altcoin boom would follow every Bitcoin rally, the time may have come to reconsider. The rules may have changed as the market has matured.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is underperforming its top-ranking rivals, having fallen over 8% in the last 24 hours to trade at $0.158.

What to know:

Dogecoin lost 41% of its value between March 3 and March 11.

The top memecoin established its lowest price in four months at $0.142 on March 11.

DOGE/USD daily price chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Dogecoin’s downturn today and in recent months mirrors the panic across the memecoin sector.

DOGE’s technicals and onchain data hint at further declines.

DOGE leads memecoin slump

Dogecoin’s declines today are part of a broader bearish sentiment in the memecoin sector.

Key takeaways:

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the second largest memecoin by market capitalization, was down 7% over the last 24 hours to trade at $0.00001167. 

Ethereum-based Pepe (PEPE) has dropped by approximately 8%.

Solana-based SPX6900 (SPX) posted the most losses among the top-cap memecoins, dropping by 28%.

Top memecoins’ performance. Source: CoinMarketCap

This bearish performance has seen the combined market capitalization drop by 7.5% over the last 24 hours, wiping out $4.54 billion from the market.

Memecoin market cap. Source: CoinMarketCap

The risk-off behavior from investors comes amid increasing negative sentiment fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties tied to President Trump’s tariffs.

This has spooked investors, pushing them away from volatile assets like memecoins.

Over $23 million in long DOGE positions liquidated

Dogecoin’s bearishness on March 11 is accompanied by significant liquidations in the derivatives market, signaling strong bearish pressure.

Key points:

Over $23.1 million worth of long DOGE positions have been liquidated over the last 24 hours alone, compared to $4.4 million in short liquidations.

Bullish traders are forced to sell their positions when long positions are liquidated.

Total DOGE liquidations. Source: CoinGlass

A total of $161 million in long DOGE positions have been liquidated since Feb. 24, accompanying a 41% drop in price over the same period.

Related: Memecoins are likely dead for now, but they’ll be back: CoinGecko

DOGE’s open interest (OI) has also dropped 37% in the past seven days, signaling a decline in trader participation.

DOGE futures open interest. Source: CoinGlass

The low OI and long liquidations suggest that leveraged traders are exiting their positions, triggering forced selling.

The funding rate has flipped negative, and its value at -0.0077% suggests a bearish outlook where short sellers are in control.

DOGE OI-weighted funding rate. Source: CoinGlass

Moving averages are not in Dogecoin’s favor

The ongoing drawdown comes after DOGE ran into a major resistance zone.

Notably:

A key barrier sits between $0.24 and $0.26, within which the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.247 and the 50-day SMA at $0.257 are currently. 

Since Feb. 3, DOGE bulls have attempted to rise above this level three times, but on each occasion, the altcoin produced a lower high than the previous one. 

This means that traders sell every time the price tries to cross this zone.

An additional barrier sits higher up at $0.3129, which is also the 100-day SMA.

DOGE/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On the downside, a key area of interest lies between the psychological level at $0.150 and the range low at $0.127, reached on Oct. 26, 2024.

This is an important level that bulls need to defend in order to avoid further losses to $0.10.

Note that when the DOGE bounced off this level in November 2024, it initiated a 227% rally to $0.480. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s potential retracement to $70,000 may be an organic part of the current bull market, despite crypto investor concerns of an early arrival of a bear market cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 14% during the past week to close around $80,708 after investors were disappointed with the lack of direct federal Bitcoin investments in President Donald Trump’s March 7 executive order that outlined a plan to create a Bitcoin reserve using cryptocurrency forfeited in government criminal cases.

Despite the drop in investor sentiment, cryptocurrencies and global markets remain in a “macro correction” as part of the bull market, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Most cryptocurrencies have broken key support levels, making it hard to estimate the next key price levels, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This is a macro correction (US tech will be down by 3% in the future, as discussed), so we have to monitor BTC. Next level will be $71,000 – $72,000, top of the pre-election trading range.”

“We are still in a correction within a bull market: Stocks and crypto have realized and are pricing; a period of tariff uncertainty and fiscal cuts, no Fed put. Recession fears are popping up,” added the analyst.

Other analysts have also warned that Bitcoin may experience a deeper retracement toward the “low $70,000’s range, which may “provide a foundation for a more sustainable recovery,” Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

Related: Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations

Bitcoin’s 36% correction to $70,000 “normal” for a bull market: Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin’s potential retracement to the $70,000 psychological mark would still fall within the regular price movement of a bull market, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom.

Hayes wrote in a March 11 X post:

“Be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market.”

Source: Arthur Hayes

“Then we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make their country great again,” added Hayes, referring to quantitative easing, a monetary policy where central banks increase the money supply by buying government bonds and other financial assets.

Related: Bitcoin may benefit from US stablecoin dominance push

Quantitative easing has historically been positive for Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin’s price rose over 1,050% during the last quantitative easing period, from just $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021, after the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy was announced during the COVID-19 pandemic on March 23, 2020, buying over $4 trillion worth of assets such as treasuries.

BTC/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – March 1

Bitcoin’s potential retracement to $70,000 may be an organic part of the current bull market, despite crypto investor concerns of an early arrival of a bear market cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 14% during the past week to close around $80,708 after investors were disappointed with the lack of direct federal Bitcoin investments in President Donald Trump’s March 7 executive order that outlined a plan to create a Bitcoin reserve using cryptocurrency forfeited in government criminal cases.

Despite the drop in investor sentiment, cryptocurrencies and global markets remain in a “macro correction” as part of the bull market, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Most cryptocurrencies have broken key support levels, making it hard to estimate the next key price levels, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This is a macro correction (US tech will be down by 3% in the future, as discussed), so we have to monitor BTC. Next level will be $71,000 – $72,000, top of the pre-election trading range.”

“We are still in a correction within a bull market: Stocks and crypto have realized and are pricing; a period of tariff uncertainty and fiscal cuts, no Fed put. Recession fears are popping up,” added the analyst.

Other analysts have also warned that Bitcoin may experience a deeper retracement toward the “low $70,000’s range,” which Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph could “provide a foundation for a more sustainable recovery.”

Related: Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations

Bitcoin correction to $70,000 “normal” for a bull market: Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin’s potential retracement to the $70,000 psychological mark would still fall within the regular price movement of a bull market, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom.

Hayes wrote in a March 11 X post:

“Be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market.”

Source: Arthur Hayes

“Then we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make their country great again,” added Hayes, referring to quantitative easing, a monetary policy where central banks increase the money supply by buying government bonds and other financial assets.

Related: Bitcoin may benefit from US stablecoin dominance push

Quantitative easing has historically been positive for Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin’s price rose over 1,050% during the last quantitative easing period, from just $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021, after the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy was announced during the COVID-19 pandemic on March 23, 2020, buying over $4 trillion worth of assets such as treasuries.

BTC/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – March 1

Opinion by: Tim Haldorsson, founder of Lunar Strategy

When US President Donald Trump announced the US strategic crypto reserve on March 2, the immediate focus fell on the price surges of the included coins. Behind the market excitement lies a much bigger story that extends far beyond the named assets themselves. 

The real opportunity lies not in holding Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) — it’s in building on these newly legitimized platforms.

This government endorsement creates fertile ground for an entire ecosystem of projects, unleashing innovation across multiple sectors while creating investment opportunities that could define the next wave of blockchain adoption.

Projects on legitimized platforms are ready for growth

The strategic reserve announcement fundamentally changed the risk profile for projects building on these networks. Developers quietly building on Ethereum, Solana and Cardano now find themselves on government-approved foundations. This validation removes significant uncertainty — a crucial factor for attracting users and capital.

When a nation plans to hold these assets in reserve, it signals a long-term commitment to their viability. For projects building on these networks, this increases confidence that their underlying platform won’t face existential regulatory threats. Infrastructure projects particularly stand to benefit; layer-2 scaling solutions for Ethereum, developer tooling for Solana and interoperability solutions for Cardano can now operate with greater certainty about their foundation’s future.

The early evidence already supports this shift. After the announcement, Cardano’s ecosystem saw renewed attention, with significant whale accumulation and increased trading volume across its decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.

Projects such as Minswap and Liqwid Finance experienced growing interest as users gained confidence in the network’s long-term viability. Ethereum and Solana ecosystems are seeing similar effects, with capital flowing to projects that leverage their unique strengths.

Gaining investor attention

Not all projects will benefit equally from this validation. Specific sectors are positioned to capture disproportionate growth as retail and institutional investors recalibrate their approach to these now-endorsed chains.

DeFi applications stand out as immediate beneficiaries. With multiple networks now government-backed, crosschain DeFi protocols that facilitate liquidity between Ethereum, Solana and Cardano are seeing renewed interest. The government’s implicit endorsement of multiple chains reinforces the vision of a multichain future rather than a winner-take-all scenario.

Infrastructure projects that connect these networks will also thrive. Crosschain bridges, already vital for a fragmented blockchain landscape, become even more critical when multiple networks have official backing. Projects building on identity solutions could also see significant interest — these government-approved networks make ideal foundations for digital identity systems requiring trust and stability.

Recent: Does XRP, SOL or ADA belong in a US crypto reserve?

Finally, the blockchain gaming sector, which had already shown strong growth with 7.4 million daily active wallets by the end of 2024, could accelerate as developers flock to these legitimized platforms. Games built on Solana’s speed or Cardano’s security can point to government endorsement as a credibility booster when seeking partners or users.

Assessing project potential through key metrics

For investors looking to capitalize on this ecosystem growth, several key metrics separate promising projects from mere speculation.

Total value locked (TVL) provides a window into genuine usage and trust. Projects showing significant TVL growth after the announcement demonstrate real traction. Developer activity remains another critical indicator: Ethereum remains the most important developer ecosystem, with thousands of active monthly contributors. At the same time, Solana experienced the fastest developer growth in 2024, particularly in emerging markets like India.

User adoption metrics tell an equally important story. Daily active wallets, transaction volumes and community growth reveal whether a project captures actual market share or generates hype. Strong partnerships also signal project strength — those securing collaborations with established institutions gain credibility and distribution channels.

The most promising projects combine these metrics with robust security measures and regulatory compliance — increasingly important factors now that these networks have government attention. Projects anticipating and addressing compliance requirements position themselves to benefit from institutional adoption.

The venture capital shift

Historically, government endorsements have led to increased institutional investment. The strategic reserve announcement could recalibrate how venture capital flows through the crypto ecosystem if this pattern holds. Venture capitalists, who were previously cautious about regulatory uncertainty, now have more precise signals about what networks have an unofficial blessing.

We may see venture firms double down on projects building on Ethereum, Solana and Cardano at the expense of alternative chains. New dedicated funds focusing specifically on government-endorsed networks could emerge, similar to how funds reorient around policy shifts in other sectors.

This shift extends beyond where capital flows and influences what types of projects are funded. Compliance-focused startups, infrastructure plays and enterprise-ready applications will attract more attention than purely speculative projects. VCs will increasingly favor teams that understand how to navigate the intersection of innovation and regulation.

For startups, this creates both opportunity and challenge. Building on these endorsed networks offers a more straightforward path to funding, but expectations around compliance and security will rise accordingly. The days of raising millions on concepts alone are giving way to the demand for solid execution and regulatory awareness.

Interoperability becomes critical

With multiple chains now part of the strategic reserve, interoperability solutions take center stage. Projects enabling seamless movement between Ethereum, Solana and Cardano stand to benefit tremendously from this new multichain reality.

Crosschain bridges like Wormhole, initially connecting Ethereum and Solana, will likely expand to include Cardano as the demand for connectivity between all endorsed networks grows.

Protocols facilitating crosschain governance or identity will similarly find increased relevance as assets and users flow between networks.

The government’s endorsement of multiple chains effectively validates the multichain thesis — that different networks serve different use cases rather than one blockchain dominating all activity. This creates space for infrastructure that connects these specialized systems into a cohesive whole.

The growth timeline

The effects of this government endorsement will unfold over multiple time horizons — the immediate price rallies and attention spikes we’ve already witnessed. The more substantial ecosystem growth will develop over months and years.

Expect new project announcements and funding rounds in the next three to six months, explicitly citing the strategic reserve to validate their approach. Development activity on these networks will accelerate as previously hesitant teams about regulatory risk jump in.

Within a year, we’ll likely see the first major institutional products built on these networks launch with formal regulatory approval. The venture funding deployed now will begin producing tangible applications across DeFi, identity, gaming and enterprise sectors.

By the two-to-three-year mark, if historical patterns from other government-validated technologies hold, these blockchain ecosystems could become mainstream infrastructure, extending far beyond their current use cases. As the internet grew from a government project to a commercial ecosystem, these networks could evolve from reserve assets to fundamental digital infrastructure.

The strategic reserve announcement might begin a new phase of worldwide blockchain adoption for investors, developers and users.

Opinion by: Tim Haldorsson, founder of Lunar Strategy.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Opinion by: Tim Haldorsson, founder of Lunar Strategy

When US President Donald Trump announced the US strategic crypto reserve on March 2, the immediate focus fell on the price surges of the included coins. Behind the market excitement lies a much bigger story that extends far beyond the named assets themselves. 

The real opportunity lies not in holding Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) — it’s in building on these newly legitimized platforms.

This government endorsement creates fertile ground for an entire ecosystem of projects, unleashing innovation across multiple sectors while creating investment opportunities that could define the next wave of blockchain adoption.

Projects on legitimized platforms are ready for growth

The strategic reserve announcement fundamentally changed the risk profile for projects building on these networks. Developers quietly building on Ethereum, Solana and Cardano now find themselves on government-approved foundations. This validation removes significant uncertainty — a crucial factor for attracting users and capital.

When a nation plans to hold these assets in reserve, it signals a long-term commitment to their viability. For projects building on these networks, this increases confidence that their underlying platform won’t face existential regulatory threats. Infrastructure projects particularly stand to benefit; layer-2 scaling solutions for Ethereum, developer tooling for Solana and interoperability solutions for Cardano can now operate with greater certainty about their foundation’s future.

The early evidence already supports this shift. After the announcement, Cardano’s ecosystem saw renewed attention, with significant whale accumulation and increased trading volume across its decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. Projects such as Minswap and Liqwid Finance experienced growing interest as users gained confidence in the network’s long-term viability. Ethereum and Solana ecosystems are seeing similar effects, with capital flowing to projects that leverage their unique strengths.

Gaining investor attention

Not all projects will benefit equally from this validation. Specific sectors are positioned to capture disproportionate growth as retail and institutional investors recalibrate their approach to these now-endorsed chains.

DeFi applications stand out as immediate beneficiaries. With multiple networks now government-backed, crosschain DeFi protocols that facilitate liquidity between Ethereum, Solana and Cardano are seeing renewed interest. The government’s implicit endorsement of multiple chains reinforces the vision of a multichain future rather than a winner-take-all scenario.

Infrastructure projects that connect these networks will also thrive. Crosschain bridges, already vital for a fragmented blockchain landscape, become even more critical when multiple networks have official backing. Projects building on identity solutions could also see significant interest — these government-approved networks make ideal foundations for digital identity systems requiring trust and stability.

Recent: Does XRP, SOL or ADA belong in a US crypto reserve?

Finally, the blockchain gaming sector, which had already shown strong growth with 7.4 million daily active wallets by the end of 2024, could accelerate as developers flock to these legitimized platforms. Games built on Solana’s speed or Cardano’s security can point to government endorsement as a credibility booster when seeking partners or users.

Assessing project potential through key metrics

For investors looking to capitalize on this ecosystem growth, several key metrics separate promising projects from mere speculation.

Total value locked (TVL) provides a window into genuine usage and trust. Projects showing significant TVL growth after the announcement demonstrate real traction. Developer activity remains another critical indicator: Ethereum remains the most important developer ecosystem, with thousands of active monthly contributors. At the same time, Solana experienced the fastest developer growth in 2024, particularly in emerging markets like India.

User adoption metrics tell an equally important story. Daily active wallets, transaction volumes and community growth reveal whether a project captures actual market share or generates hype. Strong partnerships also signal project strength — those securing collaborations with established institutions gain credibility and distribution channels.

The most promising projects combine these metrics with robust security measures and regulatory compliance — increasingly important factors now that these networks have government attention. Projects anticipating and addressing compliance requirements position themselves to benefit from institutional adoption.

The venture capital shift

Historically, government endorsements have led to increased institutional investment. The strategic reserve announcement could recalibrate how venture capital flows through the crypto ecosystem if this pattern holds. Venture capitalists, who were previously cautious about regulatory uncertainty, now have more precise signals about what networks have an unofficial blessing.

We may see venture firms double down on projects building on Ethereum, Solana and Cardano at the expense of alternative chains. New dedicated funds focusing specifically on government-endorsed networks could emerge, similar to how funds reorient around policy shifts in other sectors.

This shift extends beyond where capital flows and influences what types of projects are funded. Compliance-focused startups, infrastructure plays and enterprise-ready applications will attract more attention than purely speculative projects. VCs will increasingly favor teams that understand how to navigate the intersection of innovation and regulation.

For startups, this creates both opportunity and challenge. Building on these endorsed networks offers a more straightforward path to funding, but expectations around compliance and security will rise accordingly. The days of raising millions on concepts alone are giving way to the demand for solid execution and regulatory awareness.

Interoperability becomes critical

With multiple chains now part of the strategic reserve, interoperability solutions take center stage. Projects enabling seamless movement between Ethereum, Solana and Cardano stand to benefit tremendously from this new multichain reality.

Crosschain bridges like Wormhole, initially connecting Ethereum and Solana, will likely expand to include Cardano as the demand for connectivity between all endorsed networks grows.

Protocols facilitating crosschain governance or identity will similarly find increased relevance as assets and users flow between networks.

The government’s endorsement of multiple chains effectively validates the multichain thesis — that different networks serve different use cases rather than one blockchain dominating all activity. This creates space for infrastructure that connects these specialized systems into a cohesive whole.

The growth timeline

The effects of this government endorsement will unfold over multiple time horizons — the immediate price rallies and attention spikes we’ve already witnessed. The more substantial ecosystem growth will develop over months and years.

Expect new project announcements and funding rounds in the next three to six months, explicitly citing the strategic reserve to validate their approach. Development activity on these networks will accelerate as previously hesitant teams about regulatory risk jump in.

Within a year, we’ll likely see the first major institutional products built on these networks launch with formal regulatory approval. The venture funding deployed now will begin producing tangible applications across DeFi, identity, gaming and enterprise sectors.

By the two-to-three-year mark, if historical patterns from other government-validated technologies hold, these blockchain ecosystems could become mainstream infrastructure, extending far beyond their current use cases. As the internet grew from a government project to a commercial ecosystem, these networks could evolve from reserve assets to fundamental digital infrastructure.

The strategic reserve announcement might begin a new phase of worldwide blockchain adoption for investors, developers and users.

Opinion by: Tim Haldorsson, founder of Lunar Strategy.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.